Sharjah FC 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sharjah Stadium plays host to Sharjah FC versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sharjah FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sharjah FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sharjah FC, 1 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sharjah FC — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 44% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 53% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.74 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.357 / defence 0.921 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.080 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.763. Sharjah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Sharjah FC games / 36 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 37% | Draw 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 60% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Dec 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 37% | Draw 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 70% | xG Sharjah FC 1.74 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.357 / def 0.921 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.080 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.763 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 15:30 on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Sharjah FC 1 - 1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 37% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (4 meetings): Sharjah FC 2W | Draws 1 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sharjah FC's attack rating (1.36) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (1.08x) against Sharjah FC's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
37%
2.68
25%
3.99
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.50
1.75
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
17%
5.77
18%
5.71
Win to Nil
6%
15.50
7%
15.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.75 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 18W 9D 9L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form line: 24W 8D 4L from 36 games, 2.22 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sharjah FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 11W 5D 1L from 17 away games — 2.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.19 scored and 1.00 conceded. Sharjah FC's scoring rate against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 64%.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 18W 9D 9L in their last 36 games (1.75 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 24W 8D 4L in their last 36 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.47 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-4 on 5 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sharjah FC
3
Draws
5
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 2, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Sharjah FC 1-4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 47%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Sharjah FC and 65% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Sharjah FC's games and 71% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sharjah FC's matches and 65% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.74 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.75 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.36 / defence 0.92 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.08 / defence 0.77, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 37% | Draw 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 53%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.