Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-3 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Rashid Stadium plays host to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai versus Khorfakkan in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 16:20 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at Al Rashid Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Khorfakkan's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's favour (2.30 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, who have won 7 of the last 8 meetings against Khorfakkan — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
The historical record gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% versus Khorfakkan 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% | Khorfakkan 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.23 xG and Khorfakkan 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.476 / defence 0.793 | Khorfakkan attack 0.992 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.416. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.476 — their λ of 2.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 48 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 18%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Khorfakkan 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% | Khorfakkan 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Apr 2026, 16:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.23 / Khorfakkan 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.476 / def 0.793 | Khorfakkan attack 0.992 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Khorfakkan xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 16:20 on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at Al Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3 - 3 Khorfakkan.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 63% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
Record (8 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 7W | Draws 1 | Khorfakkan 0W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.99x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
63%
1.60
20%
5.13
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.34
1.11
Khorfakkan xG
1.60
63%
Home win
5.13
20%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
11%
9.31
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
2%
52.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.11 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 35W 10D 3L from 48 games, a 2.40 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 21L across 48 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 1.21 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 19W 3D 1L from 23 games — 2.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 9W 2D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.48 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan in 65%.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 35W 10D 3L in their last 48 games (2.40 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 15W 12D 21L in their last 48 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Khorfakkan away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.61 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 4-0 on 23 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
2
Draws
0
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 8, Khorfakkan have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 48%, Khorfakkan 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 74% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Khorfakkan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 61% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 74% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan finished level at 3-3 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.23 xG and Khorfakkan 1.11 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.48 / defence 0.79 against Khorfakkan attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 18%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58%, Khorfakkan 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.