Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-1 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Dibba Al-Fujairah welcome Al-Wasl FC to Dibba Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Dibba Al-Fujairah — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's form when playing at home: 0W 0D 7L across 7 games at Dibba Stadium this term (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Wasl FC — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, Al-Wasl FC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dibba Al-Fujairah in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Al-Wasl FC in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dibba Al-Fujairah 40% versus Al-Wasl FC 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 40% | Al-Wasl FC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.82 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.547 / defence 1.157 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.135 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.469. Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack strength of 0.547 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 41 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 15% | Draw 21% | Al-Wasl FC 63%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 6.67 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Wasl FC 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Wasl FC at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Dibba Al-Fujairah 43% | Al-Wasl FC 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 15% | Draw 21% | Al-Wasl FC 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.82 / Al-Wasl FC 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.547 / def 1.157 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.135 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Al-Wasl FC xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 0 - 1 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 15% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (1 meetings): Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Wasl FC 0W.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack rating (0.55) and Al-Wasl FC's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
15%
6.53
21%
4.69
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.75
1.93
Al-Wasl FC xG
6.53
15%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
15%
6.88
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
2%
44.88
28%
3.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.93 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dibba Al-Fujairah come into this having played 15 games, going 1W 1D 13L for 0.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Wasl FC sit at 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (8W 5D 2L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.66 PPG clear of Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dibba Al-Fujairah's home form reads 0W 0D 7L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Wasl FC have taken 2.00 points per game from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 0.47 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC in 73%.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 1D 13L in their last 15 games (0.27 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 8W 5D 2L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 0.00 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Wasl FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1
Draws
3
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, Al-Wasl FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 4-2 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al-Fujairah 43%, Al-Wasl FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Dibba Al-Fujairah) and 57% (Al-Wasl FC).
On the defensive side: Dibba Al-Fujairah have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's games and 71% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent games and 57% of Al-Wasl FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Wasl FC edge out Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-1 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.82 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.93 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dibba Al-Fujairah fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al-Wasl FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.55 / defence 1.16 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.98, drawn from 15/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 15% | Draw 21% | Al-Wasl FC 63%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 40%, Al-Wasl FC 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.27. Form held, and they took the win. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.