Baniyas SC 1-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Baniyas Stadium to take on Baniyas SC. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 December 2023, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC at Baniyas Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Baniyas SC's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Baniyas SC, 2 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baniyas SC 60% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Baniyas SC 66% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.15 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.888 / defence 1.031 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.085 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.747. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Baniyas SC games / 35 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 21% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 70% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 21% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Baniyas SC 1.15 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.888 / def 1.031 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.085 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.747 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 15:30 on Friday 15 December 2023 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Baniyas SC 1 - 2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 21% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (4 meetings): Baniyas SC 2W | Draws 0 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baniyas SC's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
21%
4.83
24%
4.09
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.10
1.96
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
4.83
21%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
14%
7.07
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
3%
34.16
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.96 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baniyas SC come into this having played 35 games, going 9W 7D 19L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai sit at 2.20 PPG from 35 outings (23W 8D 4L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.23 PPG clear of Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baniyas SC's home form reads 4W 4D 9L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken 2.24 points per game from 17 outings (11W 5D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baniyas SC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 9W 7D 19L in their last 35 games (0.97 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 23W 8D 4L in their last 35 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 0.94 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Baniyas SC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baniyas SC have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
1
Draws
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 2, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baniyas SC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 59%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Baniyas SC and 65% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Baniyas SC's games and 71% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Baniyas SC's matches and 65% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Baniyas SC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Baniyas SC 1-2 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.15 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.96 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.08 / defence 0.77, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 21% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 66%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.