Al Wahda FC 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 October 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 3W 4D 3L at Al Nahyan Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Wahda FC 1.70 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Wahda FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Wahda FC, 2 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 2–0 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 55% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 58% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.41 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 0.882 / defence 0.871 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.110 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.779. Data: 31 Al Wahda FC games / 31 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 44%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 60% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.41 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 0.882 / def 0.871 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.110 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.779 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Wahda FC 2 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 31% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (4 meetings): Al Wahda FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
31%
3.27
25%
3.95
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.13
1.72
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
5%
18.22
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.72 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wahda FC's recent record stands at 17W 7D 7L from 31 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 13L across 31 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Wahda FC by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ittihad Kalba heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Wahda FC have managed 6W 5D 4L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.35 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 17W 7D 7L in their last 31 games (1.87 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 11W 7D 13L in their last 31 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.53 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al-Ittihad Kalba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
2
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 53%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Wahda FC and 60% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 47% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Wahda FC defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.41 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.72 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.87 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.11 / defence 1.04, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 44%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al Wahda FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 58%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.