Ajman 0-1 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajman vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ajman and Al Wahda FC meet at Ajman Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ajman's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ajman have posted 5W 1D 4L at Ajman Stadium — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ajman are significantly better at Ajman Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Wahda FC (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Wahda FC arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ajman have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al Wahda FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Ajman 1W, Al Wahda FC 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 2–3 with Al Wahda FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ajman half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al Wahda FC half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 62% versus Al Wahda FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 56% | Al Wahda FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.85 xG and Al Wahda FC 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 1.082 / defence 1.317 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.953 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.775. Data: 32 Ajman games / 32 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 32% | Draw 21% | Al Wahda FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 3.12 | Draw 4.76 | Al Wahda FC 2.13. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 2.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 80% | Al Wahda FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 32% | Draw 21% | Al Wahda FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 76% | xG Ajman 1.85 / Al Wahda FC 2.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 1.082 / def 1.317 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.953 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.775 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
2.23
Al Wahda FC xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Ajman vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al Wahda FC?
Ajman 0 - 1 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Ajman vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Ajman vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 32% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 47% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Ajman and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Wahda FC?
Record (4 meetings): Ajman 1W | Draws 1 | Al Wahda FC 2W.
What form are Ajman and Al Wahda FC in?
Ajman (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ajman's attack at 1.08x the league average against Al Wahda FC's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Wahda FC's attack (0.95x) against Ajman's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 2.23.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
32%
3.09
21%
4.73
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Ajman xG
Total xG
4.08
2.23
Al Wahda FC xG
3.09
32%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.13
Clean Sheet
11%
9.29
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
3%
28.75
7%
13.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Ajman and 2.23 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Ajman have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 13W 8D 11L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Wahda FC's form line: 18W 7D 7L from 32 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Wahda FC are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ajman.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ajman have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L).
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 11W 1D 3L from 15 away games — 2.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajman are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.75 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Early Season
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 13W 8D 11L in their last 32 games (1.47 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 18W 7D 7L in their last 32 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.60 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Ajman or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al Wahda FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 3-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajman have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Wahda FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ajman
1
Draws
6
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-0 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 73%, Al Wahda FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ajman and 53% for Al Wahda FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Ajman's games and 53% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ajman's matches and 53% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Ajman and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Ajman 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Ajman 0-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.85 xG and Al Wahda FC 2.23 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ajman fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Al Wahda FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.08 / defence 1.32 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 32% | Draw 21% | Al Wahda FC 47%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 56%, Al Wahda FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.