Al Nasr 3-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Nasr face Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Nasr welcome Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to Al Maktoum Stadium in Pro League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Wednesday 17 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Nasr stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Al Nasr have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Al Nasr) versus 2.00 (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Al Nasr have won 1, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended Al Nasr 3–3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 44% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 49% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 74%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Nasr surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.10 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.789 / defence 0.714 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.174 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.774. Al Nasr's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Al Nasr have a tight defence (rating 0.714), which is pulling Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's projected output down. Data: built from Al Nasr's last 44 games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 43.
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 28% | Draw 26% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 3.56 | Draw 3.86 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.17. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Nasr 40% (last 10 home games) | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, matchday 19 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 28% | Draw 26% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Al Nasr 1.10 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.789 / def 0.714 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.174 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.774 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FAQs
What time does Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Wednesday 17 April 2024 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al Nasr 3 - 2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Pro League fixture (matchday 19) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 28% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Nasr's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Nasr's last 44 games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
28%
3.56
26%
3.86
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.59
1.49
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
6%
15.74
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.49 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 15W 9D 19L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form line: 28W 10D 5L from 43 games, 2.19 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Nasr.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 21 home games (10W 3D 8L).
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 13W 7D 1L from their last 21 away games — 2.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Nasr are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.21 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 65%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al Nasr (Home) vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Nasr
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Form FAQs
What form are Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 28W 10D 5L in their last 43 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.57 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 6 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Nov 2022, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-0 Al Nasr.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Nasr
4
Draws
4
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Nasr have won 2, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 May 2026: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 33%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al Nasr) and 67% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 71% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al Nasr's recent games and 67% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 62% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Nasr defy the odds to beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-2 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.10 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.49 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Nasr beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.79 / defence 0.71 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.17 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 28% | Draw 26% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al Nasr win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 49%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Al Nasr winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.