Al-Jazira 4-0 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajman make the trip to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium to face Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Jazira have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Jazira's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ajman's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Al-Jazira's favour (2.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Jazira register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Ajman in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, Ajman have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Al-Jazira's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Ajman winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ajman have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Al-Jazira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
Ajman goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 76% and Ajman 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 70% | Ajman 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 2.31 xG and Ajman 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.196 / defence 0.892 | Ajman attack 0.822 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.798 / away 1.638. Data: 33 Al-Jazira games / 33 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 61% | Draw 22% | Ajman 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Ajman 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Jazira (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Ajman lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Jazira carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 70% | Ajman 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 61% | Draw 22% | Ajman 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Jazira 2.31 / Ajman 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.196 / def 0.892 | Ajman attack 0.822 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.798 / away 1.638 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Ajman xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Ajman kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Al-Jazira 4 - 0 Ajman.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Ajman part of?
Al-Jazira vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 61% chance of winning, Ajman a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Jazira and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Ajman?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Jazira 1W | Draws 1 | Ajman 4W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Ajman in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Ajman (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Jazira's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (0.82x) against Al-Jazira's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.58
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.51
1.20
Ajman xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
10%
10.09
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
2%
58.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.20 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Jazira's recent record stands at 13W 9D 11L from 33 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 12L across 33 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Al-Jazira against 1.18 for Ajman. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Jazira have managed 8W 4D 4L from 16 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 4W 7D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Jazira are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.45 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Ajman in 64%.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Early Season
Ajman
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 13W 9D 11L in their last 33 games (1.45 PPG), while Ajman have gone 9W 12D 12L in their last 33 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Ajman away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.75 PPG; Ajman away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajman won 1-5 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Jazira
3
Draws
4
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 3, Ajman have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Ajman 1-1 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 81% for Al-Jazira, 75% for Ajman — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al-Jazira and 56% for Ajman. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Ajman?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Al-Jazira's games and 75% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al-Jazira's matches and 56% of Ajman's.
Do Al-Jazira and Ajman tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Ajman in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Jazira run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Ajman 4-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 2.31 xG and Ajman 1.20 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajman landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.20 / defence 0.89 against Ajman attack 0.82 / defence 1.07, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 61% | Draw 22% | Ajman 17%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 70%, Ajman 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajman's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.45 PPG, Ajman 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.