Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-0 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Thursday 11 September 2025, 14:40 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 3W 1D 6L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Wahda FC — All Games: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Wahda FC are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Al Wahda FC 5, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al Wahda FC trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 61% versus Al Wahda FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 61% | Al Wahda FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.99 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.873 / defence 0.997 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.124 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.317. Al Wahda FC's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 28 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 28 Al Wahda FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 25% | Draw 26% | Al Wahda FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Al Wahda FC 2.08. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Al Wahda FC 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Sep 2025, 14:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 25% | Draw 26% | Al Wahda FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.99 / Al Wahda FC 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.873 / def 0.997 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.124 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Al Wahda FC xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 14:40 on Thursday 11 September 2025 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 0 - 0 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 25% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 3W | Draws 0 | Al Wahda FC 5W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Al Wahda FC's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
25%
3.93
26%
3.81
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.47
1.48
Al Wahda FC xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
6%
17.18
18%
5.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.48 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba come into this having played 28 games, going 9W 8D 11L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 1.86 PPG from 28 outings (14W 10D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home form reads 5W 3D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 1.79 points per game from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.89 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 9W 8D 11L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 14W 10D 4L in their last 28 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.29 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
2
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 57%, Al Wahda FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 43% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 50%; Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent matches and 43% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent games and 43% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ittihad Kalba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.99 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.48 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al Wahda FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.79, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 25% | Draw 26% | Al Wahda FC 48%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 61%, Al Wahda FC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.