Al Bataeh 1-0 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ajman (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Bataeh face Ajman.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Al Bataeh welcome Ajman to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Bataeh have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajman — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ajman are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Ajman, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Al Bataeh.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Ajman winning.
It is worth noting that Ajman have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Al Bataeh in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Ajman in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 59% versus Ajman 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 52% | Ajman 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.06 xG and Ajman 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.705 / defence 1.140 | Ajman attack 1.074 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.432. Al Bataeh's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Al Bataeh games / 44 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 23% | Draw 24% | Ajman 53%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Ajman 1.89. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Bataeh 60% | Ajman 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 23% | Draw 24% | Ajman 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Bataeh 1.06 / Ajman 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.705 / def 1.140 | Ajman attack 1.074 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Ajman (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Ajman xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Ajman kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Ajman kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Al Bataeh 1 - 0 Ajman.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Ajman part of?
Al Bataeh vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 23% chance of winning, Ajman a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Bataeh and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Ajman?
Record (7 meetings): Al Bataeh 0W | Draws 3 | Ajman 4W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Ajman in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Ajman (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Bataeh's attack at 0.70x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
23%
4.43
24%
4.15
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
2.81
1.75
Ajman xG
4.43
23%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
4%
25.62
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.75 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Al Bataeh have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 10W 10D 24L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman's form line: 16W 6D 22L from 44 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Bataeh on 0.91 PPG, Ajman on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Bataeh have posted 0.68 PPG from 22 outings (3W 6D 13L).
On the road, Ajman have gone 7W 3D 12L from 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.34 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 10W 10D 24L in their last 44 games (0.91 PPG), while Ajman have gone 16W 6D 22L in their last 44 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.68 PPG; Ajman away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al Bataeh
3
Draws
4
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Ajman?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 1, Ajman have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Al Bataeh 1-0 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Ajman see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 59%, Ajman 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al Bataeh) and 46% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Ajman in 32%; Al Bataeh have failed to score in 32% of games; Ajman in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Al Bataeh's recent matches and 36% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Bataeh vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al Bataeh's recent games and 46% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Bataeh and Ajman tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ajman in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Bataeh defy the odds to beat Ajman 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Ajman 1-0 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.06 xG and Ajman 1.75 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ajman landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.70 / defence 1.14 against Ajman attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 23% | Draw 24% | Ajman 53%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Al Bataeh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 52%, Ajman 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajman's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 0.91 PPG, Ajman 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Bataeh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.