Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shakhtar Donetsk face Kolos Kovalivka.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk host Kolos Kovalivka at Ukraina Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 21 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Shakhtar Donetsk — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 9W 1D 0L at Ukraina Stadium — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ukraina Stadium.
Across all Premier League games this season, Kolos Kovalivka have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Kolos Kovalivka away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Shakhtar Donetsk are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Shakhtar Donetsk have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 8 past contests while Kolos Kovalivka have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shakhtar Donetsk and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Kolos Kovalivka trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 48% versus Kolos Kovalivka 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 59% | Kolos Kovalivka 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.73 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.463 / defence 0.676 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.944 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.249. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.463 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence rating of 0.676 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 59 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 58% | Draw 26% | Kolos Kovalivka 16%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Kolos Kovalivka 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% | Kolos Kovalivka 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Ukraina Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 58% | Draw 26% | Kolos Kovalivka 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.73 / Kolos Kovalivka 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.463 / def 0.676 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.944 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 13:30 on Thursday 21 May 2026 at Ukraina Stadium.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Shakhtar Donetsk 0 - 1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Ukraina Stadium.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 58% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka?
Record (8 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 6W | Draws 1 | Kolos Kovalivka 1W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk's attack at 1.46x the league average against Kolos Kovalivka's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kolos Kovalivka's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
58%
1.71
26%
3.89
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.52
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
3%
35.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.80 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shakhtar Donetsk's recent record stands at 40W 14D 5L from 59 games, a 2.27 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Kolos Kovalivka, meanwhile, have gone 20W 22D 17L across 59 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kolos Kovalivka heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shakhtar Donetsk have managed 22W 4D 3L from 29 games — 2.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kolos Kovalivka's away record stands at 12W 8D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.37 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.95 scored and 0.85 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's scoring rate against Kolos Kovalivka's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games; Kolos Kovalivka in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Current Season
Kolos Kovalivka
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 40W 14D 5L in their last 59 games (2.27 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 20W 22D 17L in their last 59 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.41 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2022, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Kolos Kovalivka specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
Draws
2
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 9 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 48%, Kolos Kovalivka 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 38% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka in 38%; Kolos Kovalivka in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Kolos Kovalivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 41% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 38% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kolos Kovalivka defy the odds to beat Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.73 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.80 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shakhtar Donetsk fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.46 / defence 0.68 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.94 / defence 0.94, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 58% | Draw 26% | Kolos Kovalivka 16%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Kolos Kovalivka win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 59%, Kolos Kovalivka 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Kolos Kovalivka winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.