Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Obolon Arena plays host to Obolon'-Brovar versus Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 23 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Obolon'-Brovar have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Obolon'-Brovar's home record at Obolon Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Obolon Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Livyi Bereh (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Livyi Bereh have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Obolon'-Brovar, 0.70 for Livyi Bereh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Livyi Bereh in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Obolon'-Brovar 1W, Livyi Bereh 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Obolon'-Brovar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Livyi Bereh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Obolon'-Brovar 27% | Livyi Bereh 27%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Obolon'-Brovar 39% | Livyi Bereh 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.25 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.768 / defence 0.957 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.663 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.002. Obolon'-Brovar's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Livyi Bereh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Obolon'-Brovar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Obolon'-Brovar games / 29 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 51% | Draw 30% | Livyi Bereh 19%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Livyi Bereh 5.26. Obolon'-Brovar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Livyi Bereh's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Obolon'-Brovar as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Livyi Bereh 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Friday 23 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 51% | Draw 30% | Livyi Bereh 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 34% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 1.25 / Livyi Bereh 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.768 / def 0.957 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.663 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Livyi Bereh xG
34%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 23 May 2025 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh?
Obolon'-Brovar 1 - 0 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 51% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh?
Record (3 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 1W | Draws 2 | Livyi Bereh 0W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating (0.77) and Livyi Bereh's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Livyi Bereh's attack (0.66x) against Obolon'-Brovar's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.7%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
51%
1.96
30%
3.30
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
1.89
0.64
Livyi Bereh xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
5%
18.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 12.1 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 0.64 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Obolon'-Brovar come into this having played 33 games, going 8W 9D 16L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Livyi Bereh sit at 0.94 PPG from 33 outings (8W 7D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Obolon'-Brovar against 0.94 for Livyi Bereh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Obolon'-Brovar's home form reads 4W 6D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Livyi Bereh have taken 0.73 points per game from 15 outings (3W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Obolon'-Brovar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.70 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Livyi Bereh in 27%.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Current Season
Livyi Bereh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 8W 9D 16L in their last 33 games (1.00 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 8W 7D 18L in their last 33 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Obolon'-Brovar's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.20 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Livyi Bereh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh?
From 4 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 2, Livyi Bereh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 27% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 20% (Livyi Bereh) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Obolon'-Brovar and 33% for Livyi Bereh.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 53% of games; Livyi Bereh in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 20% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 33% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Obolon'-Brovar edge out Livyi Bereh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Livyi Bereh 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.25 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.64 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.77 / defence 0.96 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.66 / defence 1.39, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 51% | Draw 30% | Livyi Bereh 19%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 39%, Livyi Bereh 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 27%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 1.00 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Obolon'-Brovar win broke the near-deadlock. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.