Lviv 1-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Lviv welcome Vorskla Poltava to Arena L'viv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lviv — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lviv's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 5L across 9 games at Arena L'viv this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Arena L'viv this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's away record: 3W 2D 2L from 7 road trips in Premier League this season (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Vorskla Poltava's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Lviv's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lviv, 1 for Vorskla Poltava and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 1–4 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lviv in-play and half-time data (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Vorskla Poltava in-play and half-time data (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 53% versus Vorskla Poltava 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 41% | Vorskla Poltava 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 0.96 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.719 / defence 1.261 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.856 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.218. Lviv's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Lviv games / 17 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 27% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 45%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Vorskla Poltava 2.22. Vorskla Poltava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lviv 56% | Vorskla Poltava 57%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 27% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Lviv 0.96 / Vorskla Poltava 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.719 / def 1.261 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.856 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Vorskla Poltava xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Lviv 1 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 27% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lviv and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (1 meetings): Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 1W.
What form are Lviv and Vorskla Poltava in?
Lviv (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lviv's attack at 0.72x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
27%
3.67
28%
3.58
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.28
1.32
Vorskla Poltava xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
7%
13.67
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lviv and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Lviv and 1.32 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Lviv have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 4W 4D 9L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 9W 5D 3L from 17 games, 1.88 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lviv.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lviv have posted 0.71 PPG from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lviv are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.71 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 5D 3L in their last 17 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.71 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Lviv or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Vorskla Poltava have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2021, when Vorskla Poltava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lviv's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Lviv
1
Draws
3
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Vorskla Poltava?
From 4 meetings on record, Lviv have won 0, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2023, when Lviv 0-2 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Vorskla Poltava?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 57%, Vorskla Poltava 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lviv) and 43% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 43% of games; Vorskla Poltava in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Vorskla Poltava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Lviv's games and 57% of Vorskla Poltava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lviv's recent games and 43% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lviv and Vorskla Poltava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 18, as Lviv and Vorskla Poltava drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 0.96 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.32 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.72 / defence 1.26 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.86 / defence 1.20, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 27% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 45%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 41%, Vorskla Poltava 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.