Oleksandria 1-2 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oleksandria host Shakhtar Donetsk at KSK Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 2L across 6 games at KSK Nika this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KSK Nika. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 0L across 8 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 8 games (75%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Oleksandria, 0 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Oleksandria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (17 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (17 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 41% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 35% | Shakhtar Donetsk 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.80 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.952 / defence 0.907 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.168 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.208. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.748 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 17 Oleksandria games / 17 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 23% | Draw 29% | Shakhtar Donetsk 48%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.08. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 33% | Shakhtar Donetsk 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 23% | Draw 29% | Shakhtar Donetsk 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Oleksandria 0.80 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.952 / def 0.907 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.168 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Oleksandria 1 - 2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 23% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (1 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.95x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
23%
4.32
29%
3.45
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.08
1.28
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
6%
15.52
22%
4.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 16.1 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.28 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 7W 5D 5L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form line: 14W 2D 1L from 17 games, 2.59 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Oleksandria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Oleksandria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Oleksandria are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.76 scored and 0.53 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking output running into Oleksandria's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Shakhtar Donetsk in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 7W 5D 5L in their last 17 games (1.53 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 14W 2D 1L in their last 17 (2.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 2.00 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
2
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 10 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Oleksandria 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Oleksandria 33% BTTS, Shakhtar Donetsk 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Oleksandria) and 33% (Shakhtar Donetsk).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 33% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Oleksandria's recent games and 33% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shakhtar Donetsk edge out Oleksandria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Oleksandria 1-2 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.80 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.28 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.95 / defence 0.91 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.17 / defence 0.75, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 23% | Draw 29% | Shakhtar Donetsk 48%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 35%, Shakhtar Donetsk 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (17 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (17 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.59 PPG against 1.53. That form edge translated into the three points. Oleksandria (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.