Lviv 1-1 Metal Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Metal Kharkiv at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Metal Kharkiv travel to Stadion SKIF to take on Lviv in Premier League (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lviv stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Lviv's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 8 games, Metal Kharkiv have recorded 4W 1D 3L — 1.62 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.75. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Metal Kharkiv's away record over their last 4 away games: 3W 0D 1L (2.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.25 exceeds their overall 1.62 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Metal Kharkiv are 1.02 PPG ahead (1.62 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Lviv's games and 75% of Metal Kharkiv's (from Lviv's last 10 home games and Metal Kharkiv's last 4 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Lviv in-play tendencies (last 8 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Metal Kharkiv in-play tendencies (last 8 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 38% versus Metal Kharkiv 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 50% | Metal Kharkiv 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.19 xG and Metal Kharkiv 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.953 / defence 1.392 | Metal Kharkiv attack 1.082 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.272. Lviv's defence rating of 1.392 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Metal Kharkiv's projected output up. Data: built from Lviv's last 26 games and Metal Kharkiv's last 8.
Result probabilities: Lviv 24% | Draw 22% | Metal Kharkiv 54%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 4.24 | Draw 4.50 | Metal Kharkiv 1.84. Metal Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Metal Kharkiv are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Metal Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lviv's last 10 home games and Metal Kharkiv's last 4 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lviv 60% (last 10 home games) | Metal Kharkiv 75% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 10 | Venue: Stadion SKIF • Kick-off: Sunday 30 October 2022 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 24% | Draw 22% | Metal Kharkiv 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Lviv 1.19 / Metal Kharkiv 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.953 / def 1.392 | Metal Kharkiv attack 1.082 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Metal Kharkiv (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Metal Kharkiv xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv FAQs
What time does Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv kick off?
Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stadion SKIF.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv?
Lviv 1 - 1 Metal Kharkiv.
Where is Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion SKIF.
What competition is Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv part of?
Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 10) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 24% chance of winning, Metal Kharkiv a 54% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Metal Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lviv and Metal Kharkiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lviv's attack at 0.95x the league average against Metal Kharkiv's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Metal Kharkiv's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lviv's last 26 games and Metal Kharkiv's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Metal Kharkiv Win
24%
4.24
22%
4.50
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Lviv xG
Total xG
3.11
1.92
Metal Kharkiv xG
4.24
24%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
15%
6.80
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
3%
28.85
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Lviv and Metal Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Lviv and 1.92 for Metal Kharkiv, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lviv come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 2D 5L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Metal Kharkiv sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Metal Kharkiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Lviv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lviv's home form reads 0W 0D 3L across their last 3 home games, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.62 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Metal Kharkiv have taken 2.00 points per game from their last 3 away games (2W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Metal Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lviv are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Metal Kharkiv are on 1.50 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Metal Kharkiv in 75%.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Metal Kharkiv
Blended
Lviv (Home) vs Metal Kharkiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lviv
Blended
Metal Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv Form FAQs
What form are Lviv and Metal Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Metal Kharkiv have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Metal Kharkiv away?
Metal Kharkiv's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.00 PPG; Metal Kharkiv away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 7 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lviv
1
Draws
1
Metal Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Metal Kharkiv?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Lviv have won 0, Metal Kharkiv have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lviv and Metal Kharkiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 May 2023: Metal Kharkiv 1-0 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Metal Kharkiv?
Metal Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Metal Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lviv at 67%, Metal Kharkiv at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Lviv and 67% for Metal Kharkiv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 33% of games; Metal Kharkiv in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Metal Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lviv vs Metal Kharkiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lviv and Metal Kharkiv matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lviv's games and 67% of Metal Kharkiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lviv and Metal Kharkiv matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Lviv's matches and 67% of Metal Kharkiv's.
Do Lviv and Metal Kharkiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Lviv's recent matches and 67% of Metal Kharkiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lviv and Metal Kharkiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion SKIF, Regular Season - 10, as Lviv and Metal Kharkiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.19 xG and Metal Kharkiv 1.92 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Metal Kharkiv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.95 / defence 1.39 against Metal Kharkiv attack 1.08 / defence 1.02, drawn from 26/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 24% | Draw 22% | Metal Kharkiv 54%, with Metal Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 50%, Metal Kharkiv 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Metal Kharkiv's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Metal Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.