Metal Kharkiv 0-1 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Metal Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dnipro-1 make the trip to Stadion Avanhard to face Metal Kharkiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 October 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Metal Kharkiv have collected 1.86 PPG across 7 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 2L. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.71 goals per game, with 1.86 conceded. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Metal Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Metal Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at Stadion Avanhard this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 1.86 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Avanhard this season.
Dnipro-1 (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Dnipro-1 have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dnipro-1 have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dnipro-1 are 0.94 PPG clear of Metal Kharkiv in recent Premier League fixtures (2.80 vs 1.86). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Metal Kharkiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Dnipro-1 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metal Kharkiv 86% versus Dnipro-1 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Metal Kharkiv 71% | Dnipro-1 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metal Kharkiv 1.14 xG and Dnipro-1 2.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metal Kharkiv attack 1.058 / defence 1.565 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.425 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.293. Dnipro-1 have an above-average attack strength of 1.425 — the away xG of 2.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Metal Kharkiv games / 25 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metal Kharkiv 12% | Draw 15% | Dnipro-1 73%. Fair-value odds: Metal Kharkiv 8.33 | Draw 6.67 | Dnipro-1 1.37. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (73%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.14 / 2.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.02 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Metal Kharkiv 100% | Dnipro-1 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metal Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metal Kharkiv 12% | Draw 15% | Dnipro-1 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 64% | xG Metal Kharkiv 1.14 / Dnipro-1 2.88 • Poisson strength factors: Metal Kharkiv attack 1.058 / def 1.565 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.425 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Metal Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
2.88
Dnipro-1 xG
64%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metal Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Metal Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Metal Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Metal Kharkiv 0 - 1 Dnipro-1.
Where is Metal Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Metal Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Metal Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Metal Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Metal Kharkiv a 12% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 73% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metal Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Metal Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Metal Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metal Kharkiv and Dnipro-1?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Metal Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 in?
Metal Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.86 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Metal Kharkiv's attack rating (1.06) and Dnipro-1's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (1.43x) against Metal Kharkiv's defence (1.56x) — and the away total comes out at 2.88.
These ratings are built from 7/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-3 (8.2%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
12%
8.26
15%
6.82
73%
1.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.2%
Away win
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Metal Kharkiv xG
Total xG
4.02
2.88
Dnipro-1 xG
8.26
12%
Home win
6.82
15%
Draw
1.37
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
6%
17.85
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
1%
147.52
24%
4.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 3.0 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 3.4 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metal Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Metal Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Metal Kharkiv and 2.88 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Metal Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Metal Kharkiv have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 4W 1D 2L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Metal Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dnipro-1's form line: 6W 1D 0L from 7 games, 2.71 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Dnipro-1, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Metal Kharkiv.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Metal Kharkiv have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That actually lags their 1.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 away games — 3.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Metal Kharkiv are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 2.71 scored and 0.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Metal Kharkiv have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games; Dnipro-1 in 29%.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 71% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metal Kharkiv
Early Season
Dnipro-1
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metal Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Metal Kharkiv have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 6W 1D 0L in their last 7 (2.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metal Kharkiv at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metal Kharkiv at home: 1.33 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Metal Kharkiv or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metal Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 71%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Metal Kharkiv
0
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metal Kharkiv and Dnipro-1?
From 2 meetings on record, Metal Kharkiv have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Metal Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2023, when Dnipro-1 5-0 Metal Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Metal Kharkiv and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Metal Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Metal Kharkiv, 33% for Dnipro-1 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Metal Kharkiv and 100% for Dnipro-1. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metal Kharkiv home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metal Kharkiv play Dnipro-1?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Metal Kharkiv's games and 33% of Dnipro-1's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Metal Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Metal Kharkiv's matches and 100% of Dnipro-1's.
Do Metal Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Metal Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dnipro-1 edge out Metal Kharkiv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Metal Kharkiv 0-1 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metal Kharkiv 1.14 xG and Dnipro-1 2.88 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Metal Kharkiv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Dnipro-1 landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metal Kharkiv attack 1.06 / defence 1.56 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.43 / defence 0.85, drawn from 7/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metal Kharkiv 12% | Draw 15% | Dnipro-1 73%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metal Kharkiv 71%, Dnipro-1 86%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metal Kharkiv's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.71 PPG against 1.86. Form held, and they took the win. Metal Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.