Lviv 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lviv at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lviv face Kolos Kovalivka.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lviv host Kolos Kovalivka at Stadion SKIF in Premier League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Sunday 27 November 2022 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lviv stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Lviv at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kolos Kovalivka — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Kolos Kovalivka away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lviv 0.80 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Lviv, 0 for Kolos Kovalivka and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2021, ended Lviv 1–0 Kolos Kovalivka — a Lviv win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lviv in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Kolos Kovalivka in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 48% versus Kolos Kovalivka 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lviv 39% | Kolos Kovalivka 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.46 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.960 / defence 1.275 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.702 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.167. Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Lviv's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kolos Kovalivka's projected output up. Data: built from Lviv's last 31 games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 31.
Result probabilities: Lviv 47% | Draw 26% | Kolos Kovalivka 27%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 2.15 | Draw 3.80 | Kolos Kovalivka 3.69. Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lviv are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lviv 70% (last 10 home games) | Kolos Kovalivka 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadion SKIF • Kick-off: Sunday 27 November 2022 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 47% | Draw 26% | Kolos Kovalivka 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Lviv 1.46 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.960 / def 1.275 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.702 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Lviv (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Kolos Kovalivka xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka FAQs
What time does Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 27 November 2022 at Stadion SKIF.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Lviv 0 - 1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Stadion SKIF.
What competition is Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Premier League fixture (matchday 15) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 47% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lviv's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Kolos Kovalivka's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Kolos Kovalivka's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lviv's last 31 games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lviv Win
47%
2.15
26%
3.80
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.50
1.04
Kolos Kovalivka xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
6%
15.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Lviv and 1.04 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lviv come into this having played 31 games, going 6W 8D 17L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Kolos Kovalivka sit at 1.29 PPG from 31 outings (11W 7D 13L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Kolos Kovalivka carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Lviv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lviv's home form reads 2W 4D 7L across their last 13 home games, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Kolos Kovalivka have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 13 away games (3W 4D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Lviv are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.81 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Lviv (Home) vs Kolos Kovalivka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lviv
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka Form FAQs
What form are Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 6W 8D 17L in their last 31 games (0.84 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 11W 7D 13L in their last 31 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Kolos Kovalivka's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.77 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lviv or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 4 June 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kolos Kovalivka have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Lviv
0
Draws
2
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Lviv have won 1, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 June 2023: Kolos Kovalivka 1-0 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 69%, Kolos Kovalivka 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lviv) and 23% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka in 38%; Lviv have failed to score in 31% of games; Kolos Kovalivka in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Lviv's recent matches and 23% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lviv's recent games and 23% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Lviv's recent matches and 69% of Kolos Kovalivka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kolos Kovalivka defy the odds to beat Lviv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Lviv 0-1 at Stadion SKIF, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.46 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.04 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lviv fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.96 / defence 1.27 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.70 / defence 1.19, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 47% | Draw 26% | Kolos Kovalivka 27%, with Lviv to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Kolos Kovalivka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 39%, Kolos Kovalivka 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (31 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (31 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Kolos Kovalivka arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.