Dynamo Kyiv 0-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv meet at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 November 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dynamo Kyiv have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Kharkiv (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Dynamo Kyiv's favour (2.30 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dynamo Kyiv, 0 for FC Kharkiv and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Dynamo Kyiv half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 42% versus FC Kharkiv 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 55% | FC Kharkiv 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.10 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.085 / defence 0.846 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.833 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.178. FC Kharkiv's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Dynamo Kyiv games / 31 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 42% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 27%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | FC Kharkiv 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo Kyiv 50% | FC Kharkiv 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 42% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.10 / FC Kharkiv 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.085 / def 0.846 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.833 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.83
FC Kharkiv xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 26 November 2022 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv?
Dynamo Kyiv 0 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 42% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv?
Record (1 meetings): Dynamo Kyiv 1W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv in?
Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv's attack at 1.08x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.83x) against Dynamo Kyiv's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
42%
2.41
31%
3.21
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
1.93
0.83
FC Kharkiv xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 12.1 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.83 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dynamo Kyiv come into this having played 31 games, going 22W 5D 4L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 1.16 PPG from 31 outings (10W 6D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dynamo Kyiv's home form reads 9W 4D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 0.87 points per game from 15 outings (3W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.97 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 22W 5D 4L in their last 31 games (2.29 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 6D 15L in their last 31 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.07 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Dynamo Kyiv
3
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 27% (FC Kharkiv) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 27% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 27% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 27% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dynamo Kyiv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky, Regular Season - 15, as Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.10 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.83 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Kharkiv landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.08 / defence 0.85 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.83 / defence 0.79, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 42% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 27%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 55%, FC Kharkiv 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.