Livyi Bereh 3-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees LNZ Cherkasy travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on Livyi Bereh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Livyi Bereh have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh's home record at Stadion Livyi Bereh: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Livyi Bereh are significantly better at Stadion Livyi Bereh than their overall form suggests.
LNZ Cherkasy — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. LNZ Cherkasy are 0.50 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Livyi Bereh have won 0, LNZ Cherkasy 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Livyi Bereh in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 68% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Livyi Bereh 21% versus LNZ Cherkasy 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 26% | LNZ Cherkasy 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.80 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.518 / defence 1.210 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.939 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.019. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.518 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. LNZ Cherkasy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Livyi Bereh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Livyi Bereh games / 45 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 23% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 42%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 4.35 | Draw 2.86 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 20% | LNZ Cherkasy 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 23% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Livyi Bereh 0.80 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.518 / def 1.210 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.939 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.16
LNZ Cherkasy xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Livyi Bereh 3 - 1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 23% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 42% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (1 meetings): Livyi Bereh 0W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Livyi Bereh's attacking strength (0.52x league average) is weighed against LNZ Cherkasy's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
23%
4.37
35%
2.84
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
1.96
1.16
LNZ Cherkasy xG
4.37
23%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
7%
13.90
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 16.4 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.16 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Livyi Bereh's recent record stands at 3W 6D 10L from 19 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 8L across 19 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours LNZ Cherkasy by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Livyi Bereh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Livyi Bereh have managed 2W 2D 5L from 9 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 2W 2D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of LNZ Cherkasy's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.53 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.16 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 21% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 6D 10L in their last 19 games (0.79 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 8W 3D 8L in their last 19 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Livyi Bereh's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 0.89 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Livyi Bereh
0
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 2 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Livyi Bereh 3-1 LNZ Cherkasy.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Livyi Bereh 11%, LNZ Cherkasy 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Livyi Bereh) and 44% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 67% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 67% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 44% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Livyi Bereh cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Livyi Bereh beat LNZ Cherkasy 3-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.80 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.16 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Livyi Bereh beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.52 / defence 1.21 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.94 / defence 1.26, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 23% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 42%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Livyi Bereh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 26%, LNZ Cherkasy 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Livyi Bereh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.