Chornomorets 0-0 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oleksandria make the trip to Stadion Chornomorets to face Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chornomorets's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Chornomorets's home record at Stadion Chornomorets: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Oleksandria (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Oleksandria have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Oleksandria are 1.80 PPG clear of Chornomorets in recent Premier League fixtures (2.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chornomorets lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with Oleksandria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Chornomorets — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Oleksandria — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 46% versus Oleksandria 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 48% | Oleksandria 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.90 xG and Oleksandria 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.815 / defence 1.195 | Oleksandria attack 1.129 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 0.995. Data: 59 Chornomorets games / 59 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 25% | Draw 29% | Oleksandria 47%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Oleksandria 2.13. Oleksandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 40% | Oleksandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 25% | Draw 29% | Oleksandria 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Chornomorets 0.90 / Oleksandria 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.815 / def 1.195 | Oleksandria attack 1.129 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.170 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Oleksandria xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Oleksandria kick off?
Chornomorets vs Oleksandria kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Oleksandria?
Chornomorets 0 - 0 Oleksandria.
Where is Chornomorets vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Oleksandria part of?
Chornomorets vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 25% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Chornomorets and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Oleksandria?
Record (6 meetings): Chornomorets 2W | Draws 2 | Oleksandria 2W.
What form are Chornomorets and Oleksandria in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Oleksandria (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.81x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (1.13x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
25%
4.05
29%
3.49
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.24
1.34
Oleksandria xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
6%
15.51
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.3 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.34 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chornomorets come into this having played 59 games, going 16W 6D 37L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 1.69 PPG from 59 outings (28W 16D 15L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Oleksandria carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Chornomorets's home form reads 11W 3D 15L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 1.45 points per game from 29 outings (11W 9D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chornomorets are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.29 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Current Season
Oleksandria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 16W 6D 37L in their last 59 games (0.92 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 28W 16D 15L in their last 59 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Oleksandria away?
Oleksandria's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.24 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chornomorets won 1-5 on 22 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
3
Draws
2
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Oleksandria?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Oleksandria have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Chornomorets 0-0 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 38%, Oleksandria 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Chornomorets) and 52% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Oleksandria in 41%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 31% of games; Oleksandria in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 45% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Chornomorets's recent games and 52% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chornomorets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets and Oleksandria finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.90 xG and Oleksandria 1.34 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chornomorets fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Oleksandria landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.81 / defence 1.20 against Oleksandria attack 1.13 / defence 0.94, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 25% | Draw 29% | Oleksandria 47%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 48%, Oleksandria 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.