Uthai Thani 2-1 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Uthai Thani at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom meet at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Uthai Thani have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Uthai Thani Province Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nakhon Pathom's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Uthai Thani's favour (1.50 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Uthai Thani 0W, Nakhon Pathom 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Uthai Thani goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Nakhon Pathom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 52% versus Nakhon Pathom 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 52% | Nakhon Pathom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 2.02 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.086 / defence 0.969 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.816 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.124. Data: 41 Uthai Thani games / 40 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 61% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Pathom 13%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Nakhon Pathom 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 70% | Nakhon Pathom 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 61% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Pathom 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Uthai Thani 2.02 / Nakhon Pathom 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.086 / def 0.969 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.816 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Nakhon Pathom xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom?
Uthai Thani 2 - 1 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 61% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom?
Record (2 meetings): Uthai Thani 0W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Pathom 1W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Uthai Thani's attack rating (1.09) and Nakhon Pathom's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nakhon Pathom's attack (0.82x) against Uthai Thani's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
61%
1.63
25%
3.97
13%
7.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.91
0.89
Nakhon Pathom xG
1.63
61%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
7.49
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
2%
56.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 0.89 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Uthai Thani have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 13W 11D 16L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Pathom's form line: 9W 11D 20L from 40 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Uthai Thani against 0.95 for Nakhon Pathom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Uthai Thani have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (6W 7D 4L).
On the road, Nakhon Pathom have gone 3W 5D 9L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.10 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 13W 11D 16L in their last 40 games (1.25 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 9W 11D 20L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.47 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Pathom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
1
Draws
2
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom?
From 4 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Nakhon Pathom have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 1-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom?
Nakhon Pathom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Uthai Thani see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Nakhon Pathom see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 59%, Nakhon Pathom 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Uthai Thani) and 53% (Nakhon Pathom).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Pathom in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Uthai Thani's games and 59% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 53% of Nakhon Pathom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Uthai Thani edge out Nakhon Pathom 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Nakhon Pathom 2-1 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 2.02 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.89 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 61% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Pathom 13%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 52%, Nakhon Pathom 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (40 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (40 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.25 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.