Uthai Thani 1-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Uthai Thani host Chiangrai United at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 August 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Uthai Thani haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Uthai Thani's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chiangrai United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Uthai Thani) versus 1.30 (Chiangrai United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Uthai Thani, 2 for Chiangrai United and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Chiangrai United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 53% versus Chiangrai United 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 43% | Chiangrai United 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.78 xG and Chiangrai United 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.944 / defence 0.900 | Chiangrai United attack 1.028 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.310. Data: 30 Uthai Thani games / 30 Chiangrai United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 49% | Draw 26% | Chiangrai United 24%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Chiangrai United 4.17. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Uthai Thani at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Chiangrai United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 49% | Draw 26% | Chiangrai United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Uthai Thani 1.78 / Chiangrai United 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.944 / def 0.900 | Chiangrai United attack 1.028 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Chiangrai United xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United?
Uthai Thani 1 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United part of?
Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 49% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United?
Record (4 meetings): Uthai Thani 1W | Draws 1 | Chiangrai United 2W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Uthai Thani (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Chiangrai United's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.80
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.99
1.21
Chiangrai United xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
4%
24.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.21 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Uthai Thani come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 10D 11L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. Uthai Thani haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (11W 3D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. Chiangrai United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.23 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Uthai Thani's home form reads 6W 7D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Uthai Thani are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 0.47 points per game from 15 outings (2W 1D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.10 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Pre-Season
Chiangrai United
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 11W 3D 16L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Chiangrai United away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.67 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.47 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Chiangrai United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
2
Draws
3
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Chiangrai United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 60%, Chiangrai United 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Uthai Thani) and 60% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 47% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 60% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.78 xG and Chiangrai United 1.21 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.94 / defence 0.90 against Chiangrai United attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 49% | Draw 26% | Chiangrai United 24%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 43%, Chiangrai United 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.23 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.