Trat FC 0-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trat FC vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Trat FC welcome Chiangrai United to Trat Provincial Central Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Trat FC have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Trat FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Chiangrai United's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Trat FC's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.14 xG and Chiangrai United 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.963 / defence 1.250 | Chiangrai United attack 1.041 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.054. Data: 2 Trat FC games / 32 Chiangrai United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Trat FC 30% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 41%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Chiangrai United 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trat FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Trat Provincial Central Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trat FC 30% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Trat FC 1.14 / Chiangrai United 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Trat FC attack 0.963 / def 1.250 | Chiangrai United attack 1.041 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Trat FC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Chiangrai United xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trat FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Trat FC vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Trat FC vs Chiangrai United?
Trat FC 0 - 0 Chiangrai United.
Where is Trat FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What competition is Trat FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Trat FC vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Trat FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Trat FC a 30% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trat FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Trat FC and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Trat FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Chiangrai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trat FC and Chiangrai United in?
Trat FC (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trat FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Trat FC's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
30%
3.32
29%
3.49
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Trat FC xG
Total xG
2.51
1.37
Chiangrai United xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
8%
13.08
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trat FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Trat FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.37 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Trat FC vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Trat FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 2D 0L record — D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Trat FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United's form line: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Chiangrai United are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Trat FC.
The Goals Picture
Trat FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Chiangrai United's attacking output running into Trat FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 0%.
Defensively: Trat FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Chiangrai United in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trat FC
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trat FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Trat FC have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Trat FC or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trat FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trat FC and Chiangrai United runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Trat FC
1
Draws
1
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Chiangrai United?
From 2 meetings on record, Trat FC have won 0, Chiangrai United have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trat FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2024, when Chiangrai United 3-1 Trat FC.
Who has won more matches between Trat FC and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trat FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trat FC play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Trat FC's recent matches and 0% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trat FC vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trat FC's recent games and 50% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trat FC and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Trat FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Trat FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trat FC and Chiangrai United finished level at 0-0 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trat FC 1.14 xG and Chiangrai United 1.37 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Trat FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Chiangrai United landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trat FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.25 against Chiangrai United attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Trat FC 30% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 41%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trat FC 50%, Chiangrai United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Trat FC managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangrai United managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.