Chiangrai United 3-0 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chiangrai United host Uthai Thani at LEO Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 4W 3D 3L at LEO Chiangrai Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have recorded 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 4.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 4.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Chiangrai United have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 90% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.70 xG and Uthai Thani 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.056 / defence 1.039 | Uthai Thani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.180. Data: 31 Chiangrai United games / 1 Uthai Thani games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 52% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 23%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Uthai Thani 4.35. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 52% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Chiangrai United 1.70 / Uthai Thani 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.056 / def 1.039 | Uthai Thani attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Uthai Thani xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Chiangrai United 3 - 0 Uthai Thani.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani part of?
Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 52% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Uthai Thani (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 1.06x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
52%
1.91
25%
4.06
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.74
1.04
Uthai Thani xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
4%
23.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.04 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chiangrai United by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Uthai Thani heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.00 scored and 4.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Uthai Thani in 100%.
Defensively: Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Chiangrai United or Uthai Thani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Uthai Thani in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Chiangrai United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Chiangrai United
2
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 3, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 100% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 100% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chiangrai United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Uthai Thani.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Uthai Thani 3-0 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.70 xG and Uthai Thani 1.04 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chiangrai United beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Uthai Thani landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Uthai Thani attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 52% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 23%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 0%, Uthai Thani 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Chiangrai United scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Uthai Thani managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 3 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.