Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host Prachuap at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ratchaburi — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 6W 2D 2L at Dragon Solar Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dragon Solar Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Ratchaburi, 4 for Prachuap and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Prachuap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Prachuap trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 55% versus Prachuap 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 55% | Prachuap 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.37 xG and Prachuap 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.909 / defence 0.863 | Prachuap attack 0.822 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.086. Data: 49 Ratchaburi games / 49 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 20%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Prachuap 5.00. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 30% | Prachuap 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Ratchaburi 1.37 / Prachuap 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.909 / def 0.863 | Prachuap attack 0.822 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Prachuap xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Prachuap kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Ratchaburi 1 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap part of?
Ratchaburi vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 50% chance of winning, Prachuap a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ratchaburi and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Prachuap?
Record (9 meetings): Ratchaburi 4W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 4W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Prachuap in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Prachuap (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 0.91x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
50%
1.98
29%
3.44
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.14
0.77
Prachuap xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
5%
19.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.77 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi come into this having played 49 games, going 27W 9D 13L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.39 PPG from 49 outings (17W 17D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Prachuap — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ratchaburi's home form reads 15W 6D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.83 points per game from 24 outings (4W 8D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.49 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 27W 9D 13L in their last 49 games (1.84 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 17W 17D 15L in their last 49 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Prachuap away?
Ratchaburi's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.12 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Prachuap in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Prachuap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 46%, Prachuap 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ratchaburi) and 42% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Prachuap in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 54% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 42% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Prachuap tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 21, as Ratchaburi and Prachuap drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.37 xG and Prachuap 0.77 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.91 / defence 0.86 against Prachuap attack 0.82 / defence 0.97, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 20%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 55%, Prachuap 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Prachuap's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.