Prachuap vs Sisaket United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Sisaket United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sisaket United make the trip to Sam Ao Stadium to face Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium.
Sisaket United (all games): 2W 1D 2L across 5 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Prachuap. A 0.70 PPG lead over Sisaket United (2.10 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Prachuap half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sisaket United half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 40% versus Sisaket United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 60% | Sisaket United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.62 xG and Sisaket United 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.000 / defence 0.834 | Sisaket United attack 0.823 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Data: 35 Prachuap games / 5 Sisaket United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 54% | Draw 27% | Sisaket United 20%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Sisaket United 5.00. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Prachuap if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 50% | Sisaket United 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Sisaket United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 54% | Draw 27% | Sisaket United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Prachuap 1.62 / Sisaket United 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.000 / def 0.834 | Sisaket United attack 0.823 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Sisaket United xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Sisaket United kick off?
Prachuap vs Sisaket United is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Sisaket United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Sisaket United part of?
Prachuap vs Sisaket United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Sisaket United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 54% chance of winning, Sisaket United a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Sisaket United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Prachuap and Sisaket United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Sisaket United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Sisaket United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Prachuap and Sisaket United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Sisaket United (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 1.00x the league average against Sisaket United's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sisaket United's attack (0.82x) against Prachuap's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.76
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.51
0.89
Sisaket United xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
4%
25.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Sisaket United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Sisaket United expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.89 for Sisaket United, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Sisaket United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Prachuap come into this having played 5 games, going 4W 0D 1L for 2.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sisaket United sit at 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Sisaket United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Prachuap are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Sisaket United are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sisaket United in 60%.
Defensively: Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Sisaket United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Sisaket United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 games (2.40 PPG), while Sisaket United have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Prachuap or Sisaket United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sisaket United in 20%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sisaket United see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 40%, Sisaket United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Prachuap) and 40% (Sisaket United).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Sisaket United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Sisaket United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Prachuap's recent matches and 60% of Sisaket United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Sisaket United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Prachuap's recent games and 40% of Sisaket United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Sisaket United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sisaket United in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.