Port FC 1-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Port FC at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sukhothai FC make the trip to PAT Stadium to face Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Port FC (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 1.10 PPG lead over Sukhothai FC (2.20 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Port FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sukhothai FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Port FC 2W, Sukhothai FC 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Sukhothai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 73% and Sukhothai FC 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 64% | Sukhothai FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 3.21 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.284 / defence 1.235 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.883 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.165. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 3.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Port FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Port FC games / 52 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 75% | Draw 15% | Sukhothai FC 11%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | Sukhothai FC 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (75%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (3.21 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 82% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 70% | Sukhothai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 75% | Draw 15% | Sukhothai FC 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 70% | xG Port FC 3.21 / Sukhothai FC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.284 / def 1.235 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.883 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Port FC (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.21
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Sukhothai FC xG
70%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Port FC vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Port FC 1 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Port FC vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Port FC vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 75% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 11% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Port FC and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Sukhothai FC?
Record (3 meetings): Port FC 2W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 1W.
What form are Port FC and Sukhothai FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Port FC's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.21. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.88x) against Port FC's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 7.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.4%), 4-1 (6.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
75%
1.34
15%
6.80
11%
9.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
4 – 1
6.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.21
Port FC xG
Total xG
4.48
1.27
Sukhothai FC xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.80
15%
Draw
9.29
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
4%
24.83
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Port FC and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 3.21 expected goals for Port FC and 1.27 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 4.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC come into this having played 52 games, going 26W 16D 10L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.15 PPG from 52 outings (15W 15D 22L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Port FC's home form reads 17W 5D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.81 points per game from 26 outings (4W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.02 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 26W 16D 10L in their last 52 games (1.81 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 15W 15D 22L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Port FC's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.15 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-0 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Port FC
0
Draws
3
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Sukhothai FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Port FC 5-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Sukhothai FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Port FC, 65% for Sukhothai FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Port FC and 54% for Sukhothai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Port FC's games and 65% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Port FC's matches and 54% of Sukhothai FC's.
Do Port FC and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Sukhothai FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Sukhothai FC 1-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 3.21 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.27 xG, a combined 4.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Port FC fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Sukhothai FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.28 / defence 1.24 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.39, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 75% | Draw 15% | Sukhothai FC 11%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 95% and missed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 64%, Sukhothai FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.