Port FC 1-0 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port FC host Muangthong United at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 1W 2D 1L from 4 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.25 points per game. Last five: D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Muangthong United have recorded 1W 2D 0L from 3 outings — 1.67 PPG. Last five: D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Port FC at 1.25 PPG versus Muangthong United's 1.67. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Port FC in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 67% and Muangthong United 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Port FC 33% | Muangthong United 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.79 xG and Muangthong United 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.156 / defence 1.198 | Muangthong United attack 0.919 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.377. Muangthong United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Port FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Port FC games / 3 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 41% | Draw 29% | Muangthong United 30%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Muangthong United 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 75% | Muangthong United 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 41% | Draw 29% | Muangthong United 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 68% | xG Port FC 1.79 / Muangthong United 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.156 / def 1.198 | Muangthong United attack 0.919 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Port FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Muangthong United xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Muangthong United kick off?
Port FC vs Muangthong United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Port FC 1 - 0 Muangthong United.
Where is Port FC vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Muangthong United part of?
Port FC vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 41% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Port FC and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Muangthong United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port FC and Muangthong United in?
Port FC (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L. Muangthong United (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Port FC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Muangthong United's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.48
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.30
1.52
Muangthong United xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
5%
19.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Port FC and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Port FC and 1.52 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port FC's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Muangthong United, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 0L across 3 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 1.33 PPG, Muangthong United on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Port FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 2.33 scored and 2.00 conceded. Muangthong United's attacking output running into Port FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Muangthong United in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Muangthong United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
Have Port FC or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port FC and Muangthong United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Port FC's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Port FC
3
Draws
2
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Muangthong United have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Muangthong United 0-0 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Muangthong United?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Port FC at 67%, Muangthong United at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Port FC and 100% for Muangthong United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Muangthong United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Port FC's games and 100% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Port FC's matches and 100% of Muangthong United's.
Do Port FC and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Muangthong United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Muangthong United 1-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.79 xG and Muangthong United 1.52 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Muangthong United landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.20 against Muangthong United attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 4/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 41% | Draw 29% | Muangthong United 30%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 33%, Muangthong United 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Muangthong United's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.33 PPG, Muangthong United 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Muangthong United managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.