Pattani vs Uthai Thani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Uthai Thani make the trip to Rainbow Stadium to face Pattani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 February 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pattani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 4L from 7 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pattani's home record at Rainbow Stadium: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Thai League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Uthai Thani (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Pattani against 1.10 for Uthai Thani. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pattani lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with Pattani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pattani — key trading statistics (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pattani 57% and Uthai Thani 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pattani 71% | Uthai Thani 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.87 xG and Uthai Thani 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.617 / defence 1.033 | Uthai Thani attack 0.936 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Pattani's attack strength of 0.617 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Pattani games / 37 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattani 22% | Draw 29% | Uthai Thani 49%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Uthai Thani 2.04. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pattani 25% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 22% | Draw 29% | Uthai Thani 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Pattani 0.87 / Uthai Thani 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.617 / def 1.033 | Uthai Thani attack 0.936 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Uthai Thani xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Pattani vs Uthai Thani is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Uthai Thani part of?
Pattani vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 22% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pattani and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Uthai Thani?
Record (1 meetings): Pattani 1W | Draws 0 | Uthai Thani 0W.
What form are Pattani and Uthai Thani in?
Pattani (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pattani's attack at 0.62x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (0.94x) against Pattani's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
22%
4.51
29%
3.42
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.28
1.41
Uthai Thani xG
4.51
22%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
5%
18.42
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 14.4 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Pattani and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Pattani and 1.41 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pattani come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 1D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Uthai Thani carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Pattani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Pattani's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Uthai Thani have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pattani are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.86 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pattani at home or Uthai Thani away?
Uthai Thani's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pattani at home: 1.00 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Pattani
0
Draws
0
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Uthai Thani?
From 1 meetings on record, Pattani have won 1, Uthai Thani have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pattani and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Uthai Thani 1-2 Pattani.
Who has won more matches between Pattani and Uthai Thani?
Pattani have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattani 25%, Uthai Thani 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pattani) and 50% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Pattani have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Pattani's recent matches and 75% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pattani's recent games and 50% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.