Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Nong Bua Pitchaya welcome Police Tero to Pitchaya Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Pitchaya Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Nong Bua Pitchaya) versus 1.10 (Police Tero). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nong Bua Pitchaya register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Police Tero in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Nong Bua Pitchaya, 1 for Police Tero and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Police Tero winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Police Tero in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 57% versus Police Tero 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% | Police Tero 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.42 xG and Police Tero 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.846 / defence 0.977 | Police Tero attack 1.054 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.128. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Nong Bua Pitchaya's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 54 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 42% | Draw 28% | Police Tero 30%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Police Tero 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 60% | Police Tero 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 42% | Draw 28% | Police Tero 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.42 / Police Tero 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.846 / def 0.977 | Police Tero attack 1.054 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Police Tero xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1 - 2 Police Tero.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 42% chance of winning, Police Tero a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero?
Record (3 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 1W | Draws 1 | Police Tero 1W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Police Tero (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack at 0.85x the league average against Police Tero's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.51
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.58
1.16
Police Tero xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
7%
13.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.16 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 54 games, going 17W 13D 24L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Police Tero sit at 1.24 PPG from 54 outings (15W 22D 17L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.19 PPG, Police Tero on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home form reads 12W 6D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Police Tero have taken 0.93 points per game from 27 outings (5W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.13 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 17W 13D 24L in their last 54 games (1.19 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 15W 22D 17L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Police Tero away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.56 PPG; Police Tero away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Police Tero have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1
Draws
2
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero?
From 4 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 1, Police Tero have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero?
Police Tero have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 44%, Police Tero 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 52% (Police Tero).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 33% of games; Police Tero in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Police Tero?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 56% of Police Tero's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 52% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Police Tero tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Police Tero defy the odds to beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.42 xG and Police Tero 1.16 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Police Tero outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against Police Tero attack 1.05 / defence 1.23, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 42% | Draw 28% | Police Tero 30%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Police Tero win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 50%, Police Tero 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Police Tero's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.19 PPG, Police Tero 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Police Tero win broke the near-deadlock. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Police Tero (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.