Nong Bua Pitchaya 3-2 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chonburi FC make the trip to Pitchaya Stadium to face Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya at Pitchaya Stadium this season: 6W 0D 3L from 9 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chonburi FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's away record: 3W 2D 2L from 7 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.57 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.57 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Chonburi FC are 0.60 PPG clear of Nong Bua Pitchaya in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.10 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W, Chonburi FC 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Chonburi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Nong Bua Pitchaya goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Chonburi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 56% versus Chonburi FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 44% | Chonburi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.19 xG and Chonburi FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.065 / defence 1.037 | Chonburi FC attack 1.119 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 1.081. Data: 16 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 16 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 35% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Chonburi FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 44% | Chonburi FC 43% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 35% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.19 / Chonburi FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.065 / def 1.037 | Chonburi FC attack 1.119 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.012 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Chonburi FC xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3 - 2 Chonburi FC.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 35% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC?
Record (1 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 1W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Chonburi FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating (1.06) and Chonburi FC's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (1.12x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
35%
2.87
27%
3.66
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.44
1.25
Chonburi FC xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.25 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Nong Bua Pitchaya have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 6W 4D 6L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC's form line: 8W 5D 3L from 16 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chonburi FC are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nong Bua Pitchaya.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nong Bua Pitchaya have posted 2.14 PPG from 7 outings (5W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.88 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Chonburi FC away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 2.14 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Nong Bua Pitchaya or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nong Bua Pitchaya
0
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 2, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 57%, Chonburi FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 57% (Chonburi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 43% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's matches and 57% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nong Bua Pitchaya defy the odds to beat Chonburi FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Chonburi FC 3-2 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.19 xG and Chonburi FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Chonburi FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.10, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 35% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 38%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Nong Bua Pitchaya win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 44%, Chonburi FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.