Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Police Tero meet at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 0W 0D 2L across 2 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Nakhon Ratchasima FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Police Tero's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Police Tero arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.50 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.84 xG and Police Tero 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.948 / defence 1.150 | Police Tero attack 1.075 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.234. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Nakhon Ratchasima FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 2 Police Tero games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 28% | Police Tero 29%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Police Tero 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Ratchasima FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Police Tero (0.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 28% | Police Tero 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 69% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.84 / Police Tero 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.948 / def 1.150 | Police Tero attack 1.075 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Police Tero xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Police Tero kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Police Tero kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Police Tero?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 0 Police Tero.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Police Tero part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 42% chance of winning, Police Tero a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Police Tero?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Police Tero in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. Police Tero (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Police Tero's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — Police Tero's attack (1.07x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.53
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
3.37
1.52
Police Tero xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
5%
21.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.52 for Police Tero, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Police Tero's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Police Tero are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 2.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
Police Tero
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Police Tero have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Police Tero — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
0
Draws
2
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Police Tero?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Police Tero have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-3 Police Tero.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Police Tero?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 100% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's matches and 100% of Police Tero's.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Police Tero tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nakhon Ratchasima FC edge out Police Tero 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Police Tero 1-0 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.84 xG and Police Tero 1.52 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Police Tero landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Police Tero attack 1.07 / defence 1.42, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 28% | Police Tero 29%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, Police Tero 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Police Tero arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nakhon Ratchasima FC conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Police Tero managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.