Lamphun Warrior 3-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior host Sukhothai FC at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 January 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 games at 700th Anniversary Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sukhothai FC's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Lamphun Warrior: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 2 for Sukhothai FC, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lamphun Warrior and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 60% versus Sukhothai FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 51% | Sukhothai FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.79 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.002 / defence 1.291 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.709 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.088. Data: 47 Lamphun Warrior games / 47 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 56% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Sukhothai FC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Lamphun Warrior dominate the H2H record, yet Sukhothai FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sukhothai FC (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 90% | Sukhothai FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 56% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.79 / Sukhothai FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.002 / def 1.291 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.709 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Sukhothai FC xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Lamphun Warrior 3 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 56% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
Record (7 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 5W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 2W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.00) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.16
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.79
0.99
Sukhothai FC xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
3%
29.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.99 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 47 games, going 10W 19D 18L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.17 PPG from 47 outings (13W 16D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.04 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 6W 10D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.59 points per game from 22 outings (1W 10D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.28 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 10W 19D 18L in their last 47 games (1.04 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 13W 16D 18L in their last 47 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.27 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lamphun Warrior go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Sukhothai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lamphun Warrior
0
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 6, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 3-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 64%, Sukhothai FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lamphun Warrior) and 41% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 54% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 41% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lamphun Warrior run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Sukhothai FC 3-0 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.79 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sukhothai FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.00 / defence 1.29 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.16, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 56% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 20%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 51%, Sukhothai FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.04 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.