Lamphun Warrior 3-1 Pattani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pattani at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lamphun PAO plays host to Lamphun Warrior versus Pattani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 25 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Lamphun PAO, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pattani have collected 0.80 PPG across 5 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 1D 3L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Lamphun Warrior, 0.80 for Pattani — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Lamphun Warrior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Pattani goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 60% versus Pattani 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 40% | Pattani 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.40 xG and Pattani 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.835 / defence 1.273 | Pattani attack 1.038 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.325. Data: 35 Lamphun Warrior games / 5 Pattani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 30% | Draw 24% | Pattani 45%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Pattani 2.22. Pattani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.6 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 61% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Pattani as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pattani if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Pattani 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Lamphun PAO • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 30% | Draw 24% | Pattani 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.40 / Pattani 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.835 / def 1.273 | Pattani attack 1.038 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Pattani (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Pattani xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Lamphun PAO.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani?
Lamphun Warrior 3 - 1 Pattani.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at Lamphun PAO.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 30% chance of winning, Pattani a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pattani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Pattani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Pattani in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Pattani (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lamphun Warrior's attack at 0.83x the league average against Pattani's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pattani's attack (1.04x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pattani Win
30%
3.30
24%
4.10
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.15
1.75
Pattani xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
17%
5.76
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
5%
19.02
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.75 for Pattani, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pattani, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 0.80 for Pattani. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Pattani in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Pattani have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
0
Draws
0
Pattani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Pattani?
From 1 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Pattani have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Pattani last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 3-1 Pattani.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Pattani?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 60%, Pattani 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lamphun Warrior) and 60% (Pattani).
On the defensive side: Pattani in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Pattani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 40% of Pattani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 60% of Pattani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Pattani tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pattani in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Pattani.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Pattani 3-1 at Lamphun PAO, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.40 xG and Pattani 1.75 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.83 / defence 1.27 against Pattani attack 1.04 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 30% | Draw 24% | Pattani 45%, with Pattani to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 40%, Pattani 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Pattani's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 0.80 PPG, Pattani 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Pattani shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.