Lamphun Warrior 2-2 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 August 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lamphun Warrior have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Chonburi FC (all games): 0W 1D 1L across 2 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lamphun Warrior lead 1W to 3W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.64 xG and Chonburi FC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.014 / defence 1.124 | Chonburi FC attack 0.681 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.412. Data: 32 Lamphun Warrior games / 2 Chonburi FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 50% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Chonburi FC 4.17. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 1.6 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 50% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.64 / Chonburi FC 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.014 / def 1.124 | Chonburi FC attack 0.681 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Chonburi FC xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 2 Chonburi FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 50% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC?
Record (4 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 3W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.01) and Chonburi FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (0.68x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.89
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.72
1.08
Chonburi FC xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
5%
21.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.08 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chonburi FC sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 0.00 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Chonburi FC in 0%.
Defensively: Chonburi FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Lamphun Warrior or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
1
Draws
4
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Chonburi FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 1-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC?
Chonburi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 0% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 0% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC finished level at 2-2 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.64 xG and Chonburi FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Chonburi FC outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.01 / defence 1.12 against Chonburi FC attack 0.68 / defence 0.95, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 50% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 24%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 100%, Chonburi FC 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chonburi FC scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.