Lampang FC 0-3 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lampang FC vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Lampang FC welcome Buriram United to Lampang Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lampang FC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lampang FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lampang FC's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 3L across 5 games at Lampang Provincial Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Lampang FC are significantly better at Lampang Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Buriram United — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Lampang FC trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Buriram United trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lampang FC 54% and Buriram United 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lampang FC 64% | Buriram United 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lampang FC 0.92 xG and Buriram United 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lampang FC attack 0.762 / defence 1.423 | Buriram United attack 1.323 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.181. Lampang FC's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Lampang FC games / 41 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lampang FC 13% | Draw 20% | Buriram United 66%. Fair-value odds: Lampang FC 7.69 | Draw 5.00 | Buriram United 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lampang FC 40% | Buriram United 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lampang FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Lampang Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lampang FC 13% | Draw 20% | Buriram United 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 54% | xG Lampang FC 0.92 / Buriram United 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Lampang FC attack 0.762 / def 1.423 | Buriram United attack 1.323 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Lampang FC xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Buriram United xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lampang FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Lampang FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Lampang FC vs Buriram United?
Lampang FC 0 - 3 Buriram United.
Where is Lampang FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Lampang FC vs Buriram United part of?
Lampang FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lampang FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Lampang FC a 13% chance of winning, Buriram United a 66% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lampang FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lampang FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Lampang FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Buriram United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lampang FC and Buriram United in?
Lampang FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Buriram United (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lampang FC's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Lampang FC's defence, projects 2.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
13%
7.46
20%
4.90
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Lampang FC xG
Total xG
3.14
2.22
Buriram United xG
7.46
13%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
11%
9.23
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
1%
68.87
26%
3.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lampang FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Lampang FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Lampang FC and 2.22 for Buriram United, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Lampang FC vs Buriram United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lampang FC come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 2D 7L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Lampang FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.45 PPG from 11 outings (8W 3D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.72 PPG clear of Lampang FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lampang FC's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Lampang FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.60 points per game from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lampang FC are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.55 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United in 82%.
Last 11 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lampang FC
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lampang FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Lampang FC have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 8W 3D 0L in their last 11 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lampang FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lampang FC at home: 1.20 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lampang FC
0
Draws
2
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Buriram United?
From 2 meetings on record, Lampang FC have won 0, Buriram United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lampang FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Buriram United 2-0 Lampang FC.
Who has won more matches between Lampang FC and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lampang FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lampang FC 40%, Buriram United 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Lampang FC and 60% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lampang FC have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lampang FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lampang FC play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Lampang FC's games and 80% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lampang FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lampang FC's matches and 60% of Buriram United's.
Do Lampang FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Lampang FC have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lampang FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Lampang FC 0-3 at Lampang Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lampang FC 0.92 xG and Buriram United 2.22 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Lampang FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lampang FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.42 against Buriram United attack 1.32 / defence 0.94, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lampang FC 13% | Draw 20% | Buriram United 66%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lampang FC 64%, Buriram United 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lampang FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Buriram United's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. Lampang FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.