Khon Kaen United 1-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Khon Kaen United face Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Khon Kaen United welcome Port FC to Khon Kaen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Khon Kaen United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khon Kaen United at Khon Kaen Stadium this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Khon Kaen United are significantly better at Khon Kaen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Port FC have posted 4W 6D 0L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Port FC's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Khon Kaen United's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Khon Kaen United register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Port FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Khon Kaen United, 3 for Port FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Khon Kaen United trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Port FC trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khon Kaen United 56% and Port FC 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 56% | Port FC 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.46 xG and Port FC 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.941 / defence 0.924 | Port FC attack 1.260 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.264. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Khon Kaen United games / 32 Port FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 37% | Draw 26% | Port FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Port FC 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Khon Kaen United 60% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 37% | Draw 26% | Port FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.46 / Port FC 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.941 / def 0.924 | Port FC attack 1.260 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.772 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Port FC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Port FC kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Port FC?
Khon Kaen United 1 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Port FC part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 37% chance of winning, Port FC a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Port FC?
Record (6 meetings): Khon Kaen United 1W | Draws 2 | Port FC 3W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Port FC in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Port FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Khon Kaen United's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
37%
2.72
26%
3.88
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.93
1.47
Port FC xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.47 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khon Kaen United's recent record stands at 8W 12D 12L from 32 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 5L across 32 games — 1.97 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khon Kaen United heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Khon Kaen United have managed 5W 10D 1L from 16 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Khon Kaen United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 6W 8D 2L across 16 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Khon Kaen United are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.50 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 72%.
Last 32 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 8W 12D 12L in their last 32 games (1.12 PPG), while Port FC have gone 18W 9D 5L in their last 32 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.56 PPG; Port FC away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when Port FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Khon Kaen United
2
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2025, when Port FC 1-2 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Khon Kaen United at 62%, Port FC at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Khon Kaen United) and 69% (Port FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Khon Kaen United's games and 81% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Khon Kaen United's matches and 69% of Port FC's.
Do Khon Kaen United and Port FC tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Port FC in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Khon Kaen United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Khon Kaen United 1-2 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.46 xG and Port FC 1.47 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Port FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.87, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 37% | Draw 26% | Port FC 37%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Port FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 56%, Port FC 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.