Khon Kaen United 4-0 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Khon Kaen United at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khon Kaen United host Police Tero at Khon Kaen Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Khon Kaen Stadium, Khon Kaen United have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Khon Kaen United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Khon Kaen United register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Police Tero in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Khon Kaen United have won 1, Police Tero 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 3–1 with Khon Kaen United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Khon Kaen United in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Police Tero in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 48% versus Police Tero 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 42% | Police Tero 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.83 xG and Police Tero 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.767 / defence 0.837 | Police Tero attack 1.074 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.779 / away 1.138. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Khon Kaen United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Khon Kaen United games / 52 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 55% | Draw 25% | Police Tero 20%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Police Tero 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Khon Kaen United (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khon Kaen United are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Khon Kaen United 60% | Police Tero 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Apr 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 55% | Draw 25% | Police Tero 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.83 / Police Tero 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.767 / def 0.837 | Police Tero attack 1.074 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.779 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Police Tero xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero?
Khon Kaen United 4 - 0 Police Tero.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 55% chance of winning, Police Tero a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Police Tero?
Record (5 meetings): Khon Kaen United 1W | Draws 3 | Police Tero 1W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Police Tero in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Police Tero (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Khon Kaen United's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Police Tero's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
55%
1.82
25%
3.93
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.86
1.02
Police Tero xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
3%
32.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.02 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Khon Kaen United have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 12W 21D 19L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero's form line: 16W 15D 21L from 52 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khon Kaen United on 1.10 PPG, Police Tero on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Khon Kaen United have posted 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (9W 13D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Khon Kaen United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Police Tero have gone 7W 5D 13L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khon Kaen United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.35 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero in 69%.
Last 52 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 12W 21D 19L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 16W 15D 21L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Police Tero away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.60 PPG; Police Tero away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khon Kaen United and Police Tero runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khon Kaen United go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Khon Kaen United won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Khon Kaen United
3
Draws
1
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 2, Police Tero have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2024, when Khon Kaen United 4-0 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Police Tero?
Khon Kaen United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 48%, Police Tero 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Khon Kaen United) and 68% (Police Tero).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Police Tero?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Khon Kaen United's games and 72% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 68% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Police Tero tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Khon Kaen United run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Police Tero.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Police Tero 4-0 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.83 xG and Police Tero 1.02 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Khon Kaen United beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Police Tero landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.77 / defence 0.84 against Police Tero attack 1.07 / defence 1.34, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 55% | Draw 25% | Police Tero 20%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 42%, Police Tero 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Police Tero's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 1.10 PPG, Police Tero 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Police Tero (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.