Chonburi FC 3-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya meet at Chonburi Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chonburi FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 2 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 2D 0L. Last five: D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nong Bua Pitchaya arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.34 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.899 / defence 1.112 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.349. Data: 2 Chonburi FC games / 2 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 35% | Draw 34% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 32%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nong Bua Pitchaya (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Chonburi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 35% | Draw 34% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Chonburi FC 1.34 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.899 / def 1.112 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Chonburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Chonburi FC 3 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 35% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.90x the league average against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack (0.85x) against Chonburi FC's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
35%
2.88
34%
2.96
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.62
1.27
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
10%
10.32
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.27 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 2D 0L record — D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Chonburi FC's scoring rate against Nong Bua Pitchaya's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 0%.
Defensively: Nong Bua Pitchaya in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Chonburi FC or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
2
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 4 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 Chonburi FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 0% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 0% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nong Bua Pitchaya.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 3-1 at Chonburi Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.34 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.27 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Chonburi FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 35% | Draw 34% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 32%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 50%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Nong Bua Pitchaya arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Chonburi FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chonburi FC scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Nong Bua Pitchaya shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.