Chonburi FC 0-0 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bangkok United (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chonburi FC face Bangkok United.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chonburi UTA Stadium plays host to Chonburi FC versus Bangkok United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Thursday 28 December 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Chonburi UTA Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bangkok United (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bangkok United's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Bangkok United are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bangkok United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Bangkok United have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Chonburi FC's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 1–3 with Bangkok United winning.
It is worth noting that Bangkok United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bangkok United half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 58% versus Bangkok United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 54% | Bangkok United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 0.76 xG and Bangkok United 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.720 / defence 1.058 | Bangkok United attack 1.122 / defence 0.617. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.332. Chonburi FC's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bangkok United's defence strength of 0.617 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Chonburi FC games / 43 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 16% | Draw 29% | Bangkok United 55%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 6.25 | Draw 3.45 | Bangkok United 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Bangkok United (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bangkok United at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Chonburi FC 60% | Bangkok United 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Dec 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 16% | Draw 29% | Bangkok United 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Chonburi FC 0.76 / Bangkok United 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.720 / def 1.058 | Bangkok United attack 1.122 / def 0.617 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Bangkok United xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United kicked off at 12:00 on Thursday 28 December 2023 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United?
Chonburi FC 0 - 0 Bangkok United.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 16% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 55% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Chonburi FC and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Bangkok United?
Record (4 meetings): Chonburi FC 0W | Draws 1 | Bangkok United 3W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Bangkok United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Bangkok United (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.72x the league average against Bangkok United's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bangkok United's attack (1.12x) against Chonburi FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
16%
6.34
29%
3.43
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.34
1.58
Bangkok United xG
6.34
16%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
3%
30.88
26%
3.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.58 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 15W 8D 20L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United's form line: 29W 8D 6L from 43 games, 2.21 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 1.65 PPG from 20 outings (10W 3D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Chonburi FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 12W 4D 4L from 20 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.91 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 15W 8D 20L in their last 43 games (1.23 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 29W 8D 6L in their last 43 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.65 PPG; Bangkok United away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bangkok United go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bangkok United won 6-0 on 31 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bangkok United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
6
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Bangkok United?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 0, Bangkok United have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Bangkok United 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 45%, Bangkok United 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Chonburi FC) and 35% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bangkok United in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Bangkok United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 40% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 35% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chonburi FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Chonburi FC and Bangkok United drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 0.76 xG and Bangkok United 1.58 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bangkok United landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.06 against Bangkok United attack 1.12 / defence 0.62, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 16% | Draw 29% | Bangkok United 55%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 54%, Bangkok United 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Bangkok United's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.