Ayutthaya FC vs Sisaket United – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ayutthaya FC at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ayutthaya FC vs Sisaket United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ayutthaya FC and Sisaket United meet at Ayutthaya Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Ayutthaya FC (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Ayutthaya FC have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Sisaket United have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Ayutthaya FC. A 0.90 PPG lead over Sisaket United (0.90 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.86 xG and Sisaket United 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 1.005 / defence 1.114 | Sisaket United attack 0.856 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.091. Sisaket United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Ayutthaya FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Ayutthaya FC games / 1 Sisaket United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 56% | Draw 24% | Sisaket United 20%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Sisaket United 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Ayutthaya FC (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ayutthaya FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Sisaket United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 56% | Draw 24% | Sisaket United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.86 / Sisaket United 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 1.005 / def 1.114 | Sisaket United attack 0.856 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Sisaket United xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Sisaket United kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Sisaket United is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Sisaket United being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Sisaket United part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Sisaket United is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Sisaket United?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 56% chance of winning, Sisaket United a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Sisaket United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Sisaket United will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Sisaket United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Sisaket United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Sisaket United in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Sisaket United (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ayutthaya FC's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sisaket United's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Sisaket United's attack (0.86x) against Ayutthaya FC's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.24
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.90
1.04
Sisaket United xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
3%
31.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Sisaket United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Sisaket United expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.04 for Sisaket United, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Sisaket United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ayutthaya FC come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sisaket United sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Sisaket United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sisaket United are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Sisaket United in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
Sisaket United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Sisaket United in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Sisaket United have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Sisaket United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Sisaket United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 100% of Sisaket United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Sisaket United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Ayutthaya FC's matches and 100% of Sisaket United's.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Sisaket United tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sisaket United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.