Ayutthaya FC 1-4 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ayutthaya Province Stadium plays host to Ayutthaya FC versus Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Ayutthaya FC (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ayutthaya FC have posted 2W 1D 7L at Ayutthaya Province Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Port FC are 1.70 PPG clear of Ayutthaya FC in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ayutthaya FC 0W, Port FC 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ayutthaya FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ayutthaya FC 59% versus Port FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 45% | Port FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 0.77 xG and Port FC 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.608 / defence 1.452 | Port FC attack 1.161 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.027. Ayutthaya FC's attack strength of 0.608 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Ayutthaya FC games / 59 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 14% | Draw 28% | Port FC 58%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 7.14 | Draw 3.57 | Port FC 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (58%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ayutthaya FC 50% | Port FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 14% | Draw 28% | Port FC 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Ayutthaya FC 0.77 / Port FC 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.608 / def 1.452 | Port FC attack 1.161 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Port FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Port FC xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC?
Ayutthaya FC 1 - 4 Port FC.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 14% chance of winning, Port FC a 58% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Port FC?
Record (1 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 0W | Draws 0 | Port FC 1W.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Port FC in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ayutthaya FC's attack at 0.61x the league average against Port FC's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.16x) against Ayutthaya FC's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.3%), 0-2 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
14%
7.14
28%
3.59
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.50
1.73
Port FC xG
7.14
14%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
46%
2.15
Win to Nil
2%
40.33
27%
3.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.73 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Ayutthaya FC have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 8W 8D 13L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Port FC's form line: 17W 6D 6L from 29 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ayutthaya FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0.71 PPG from 14 outings (2W 4D 8L).
On the road, Port FC have gone 6W 2D 6L from 14 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.90 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Current Season
Port FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 8W 8D 13L in their last 29 games (1.10 PPG), while Port FC have gone 17W 6D 6L in their last 29 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.71 PPG; Port FC away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Ayutthaya FC or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ayutthaya FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Port FC in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ayutthaya FC
0
Draws
2
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Port FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, Port FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 1-4 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Ayutthaya FC and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Port FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ayutthaya FC 64%, Port FC 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ayutthaya FC) and 29% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC in 36%; Ayutthaya FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Port FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Ayutthaya FC's recent matches and 36% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ayutthaya FC's recent games and 29% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Port FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ayutthaya FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Ayutthaya FC 1-4 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 0.77 xG and Port FC 1.73 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Port FC outscored their 1.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.61 / defence 1.45 against Port FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.83, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 14% | Draw 28% | Port FC 58%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 45%, Port FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.