Yverdon Sport 0-3 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Yverdon Sport welcome Lausanne to Stade Municipal. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Yverdon Sport — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Yverdon Sport have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stade Municipal — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Lausanne have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Lausanne have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Yverdon Sport at 1.50 PPG versus Lausanne's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Yverdon Sport have won 2, Lausanne 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Lausanne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Yverdon Sport in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Lausanne in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yverdon Sport 61% versus Lausanne 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 61% | Lausanne 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.74 xG and Lausanne 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 1.020 / defence 0.851 | Lausanne attack 0.810 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.249. Data: 44 Yverdon Sport games / 44 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 58% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 18%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Lausanne 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Yverdon Sport (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yverdon Sport are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 50% | Lausanne 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 58% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.74 / Lausanne 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 1.020 / def 0.851 | Lausanne attack 0.810 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Lausanne xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Yverdon Sport 0 - 3 Lausanne.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne part of?
Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 58% chance of winning, Lausanne a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Yverdon Sport and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Lausanne?
Record (5 meetings): Yverdon Sport 2W | Draws 1 | Lausanne 2W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and Lausanne in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Lausanne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Yverdon Sport's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus Yverdon Sport's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.25
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.60
0.86
Lausanne xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
3%
30.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 0.86 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Yverdon Sport have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 17W 11D 21L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne's form line: 15W 14D 20L from 49 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yverdon Sport on 1.27 PPG, Lausanne on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Yverdon Sport have posted 2.08 PPG from 24 outings (15W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lausanne have gone 4W 7D 13L from 24 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lausanne's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.35 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and Lausanne in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 17W 11D 21L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 15W 14D 20L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or Lausanne away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 2.08 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Yverdon Sport and Lausanne runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lausanne have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Yverdon Sport's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Yverdon Sport
1
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Lausanne?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 2, Lausanne have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Lausanne 4-1 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 58%, Lausanne 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Yverdon Sport and 67% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Yverdon Sport's games and 62% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 67% of Lausanne's.
Do Yverdon Sport and Lausanne tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lausanne run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Yverdon Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat Yverdon Sport 0-3 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.74 xG and Lausanne 0.86 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Yverdon Sport fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Lausanne outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 1.02 / defence 0.85 against Lausanne attack 0.81 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 58% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 18%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Lausanne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 61%, Lausanne 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lausanne's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.27 PPG, Lausanne 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.