FC ST. Gallen 1-1 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC ST. Gallen (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC ST. Gallen face FC Sion.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 13 as FC ST. Gallen welcome FC Sion to kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 4W 4D 2L at kybunpark — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Sion — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Sion have posted 1W 0D 4L from 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
FC ST. Gallen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for FC ST. Gallen, 0 for FC Sion and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Sion trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC ST. Gallen 67% versus FC Sion 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 58% | FC Sion 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.29 xG and FC Sion 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.206 / defence 1.051 | FC Sion attack 0.628 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.287. Data: 45 FC ST. Gallen games / 12 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 70% | Draw 18% | FC Sion 12%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | FC Sion 8.33. The model has a clear lean to FC ST. Gallen (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 80% | FC Sion 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 70% | Draw 18% | FC Sion 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 51% | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.29 / FC Sion 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.206 / def 1.051 | FC Sion attack 0.628 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (70%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
0.85
FC Sion xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen 1 - 1 FC Sion.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 70% chance of winning, FC Sion a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
Record (3 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 2W | Draws 1 | FC Sion 0W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. FC Sion (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.21x the league average against FC Sion's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.60
12%
8.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.14
0.85
FC Sion xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.60
18%
Draw
8.10
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
10%
9.87
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
1%
79.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 0.85 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 4W 4D 4L from 12 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 5L across 12 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 1.33 PPG, FC Sion on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Sion's away record stands at 1W 0D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Sion's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.08 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Sion away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.60 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
4
Draws
2
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, FC Sion have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 80%, FC Sion 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for FC ST. Gallen and 60% for FC Sion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 40% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 60% of FC Sion's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at kybunpark, Regular Season - 13, as FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.29 xG and FC Sion 0.85 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.21 / defence 1.05 against FC Sion attack 0.63 / defence 1.20, drawn from 45/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 70% | Draw 18% | FC Sion 12%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 58%, FC Sion 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.33 PPG, FC Sion 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Sion (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.