FC Basel 1893 1-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 16 as FC Basel 1893 welcome Lausanne to St. Jakob-Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at St. Jakob-Park this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St. Jakob-Park.
Lausanne — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Basel 1893 1.90 PPG, Lausanne 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Lausanne, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for FC Basel 1893.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 2–3 with Lausanne winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lausanne have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Lausanne in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 53% versus Lausanne 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 53% | Lausanne 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.82 xG and Lausanne 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.235 / defence 0.838 | Lausanne attack 0.882 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.201. Data: 48 FC Basel 1893 games / 48 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 59% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Lausanne 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FC Basel 1893 (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 40% | Lausanne 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 59% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.82 / Lausanne 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.235 / def 0.838 | Lausanne attack 0.882 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Lausanne xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
FC Basel 1893 1 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 59% chance of winning, Lausanne a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Record (4 meetings): FC Basel 1893 0W | Draws 1 | Lausanne 3W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Lausanne (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.18
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.71
0.89
Lausanne xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
3%
35.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 0.89 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893's recent record stands at 22W 11D 20L from 53 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 21L across 53 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Basel 1893 on 1.45 PPG, Lausanne on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Basel 1893 have managed 12W 6D 8L from 26 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 5W 7D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lausanne's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.34 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 22W 11D 20L in their last 53 games (1.45 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 18W 14D 21L in their last 53 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or Lausanne away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.62 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.85 PPG.
Have FC Basel 1893 or Lausanne been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Basel 1893 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lausanne in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Basel 1893
4
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, Lausanne have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Lausanne 1-2 FC Basel 1893.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 50%, Lausanne 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC Basel 1893) and 65% (Lausanne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Lausanne in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play Lausanne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Basel 1893's recent matches and 58% of Lausanne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 65% of Lausanne's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 16, as FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.82 xG and Lausanne 0.89 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.24 / defence 0.84 against Lausanne attack 0.88 / defence 0.94, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 59% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 17%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 53%, Lausanne 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Lausanne's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.45 PPG, Lausanne 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.