FC ST. Gallen 1-1 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Basel 1893 (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as FC ST. Gallen face FC Basel 1893.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 meet at kybunpark in Super League (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC ST. Gallen have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC ST. Gallen's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Basel 1893's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Basel 1893's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, FC Basel 1893 are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, FC Basel 1893 have the stronger record — 3 wins to FC ST. Gallen's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended FC ST. Gallen 1–2 FC Basel 1893 — a FC Basel 1893 win.
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
FC ST. Gallen — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 45%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Basel 1893 — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC ST. Gallen 63% versus FC Basel 1893 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 54% | FC Basel 1893 52%). Note also that FC Basel 1893 surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while FC ST. Gallen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.47 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.985 / defence 0.980 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.630 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.229. FC Basel 1893 have an above-average attack rating of 1.630, which lifts their away xG to 1.96. Data: built from FC ST. Gallen's last 49 games and FC Basel 1893's last 49.
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 28% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 48%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 3.55 | Draw 4.27 | FC Basel 1893 2.07. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.96) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC ST. Gallen's last 10 home games and FC Basel 1893's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC ST. Gallen 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Basel 1893 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, matchday 17 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 28% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.47 / FC Basel 1893 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.985 / def 0.980 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.630 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.96
FC Basel 1893 xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 FAQs
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 8 December 2024 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
FC ST. Gallen 1 - 1 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 is a Super League fixture (matchday 17) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 28% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 0.98x the league average against FC Basel 1893's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (1.63x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from FC ST. Gallen's last 49 games and FC Basel 1893's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
28%
3.55
23%
4.27
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.43
1.96
FC Basel 1893 xG
3.55
28%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
14%
7.12
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
4%
25.26
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.96 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC ST. Gallen come into this having played 54 games, going 21W 15D 18L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.44 PPG from 54 outings (22W 12D 20L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for FC ST. Gallen against 1.44 for FC Basel 1893. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC ST. Gallen's home form reads 14W 8D 5L across their last 27 home games, a 1.85 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — FC ST. Gallen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 27 away games (10W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.56 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC ST. Gallen (Home) vs FC Basel 1893 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 Form FAQs
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 21W 15D 18L in their last 54 games (1.44 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 22W 12D 20L in their last 54 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.85 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
FC ST. Gallen have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won FC ST. Gallen 3-0 FC Basel 1893 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
3
Draws
3
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 70%, FC Basel 1893 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC ST. Gallen and 59% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 56% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 59% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of FC ST. Gallen's recent matches and 82% of FC Basel 1893's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at kybunpark, Regular Season - 17, as FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.47 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.96 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.63 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 28% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 48%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 54%, FC Basel 1893 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.44 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.