Utsikten 3-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utsikten vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bravida Arena plays host to Utsikten versus Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Utsikten's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utsikten's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Bravida Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ostersunds FK (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Utsikten 2W, Ostersunds FK 1W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2024, ended 0–1 with Ostersunds FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Utsikten half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 53% versus Ostersunds FK 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 49% | Ostersunds FK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.79 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 1.098 / defence 1.050 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.761 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.194. Data: 57 Utsikten games / 57 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 56% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 19%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Ostersunds FK 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Utsikten (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utsikten at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Utsikten 50% | Ostersunds FK 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 56% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Utsikten 1.79 / Ostersunds FK 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 1.098 / def 1.050 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.761 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Ostersunds FK xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Utsikten vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Ostersunds FK?
Utsikten 3 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Utsikten vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Utsikten vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 56% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Utsikten and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Ostersunds FK?
Record (5 meetings): Utsikten 2W | Draws 2 | Ostersunds FK 1W.
What form are Utsikten and Ostersunds FK in?
Utsikten (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Utsikten vs Ostersunds FK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Utsikten's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.76x) against Utsikten's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
56%
1.79
25%
4.00
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.74
0.95
Ostersunds FK xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
3%
31.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Utsikten and 0.95 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Utsikten's recent record stands at 23W 16D 18L from 57 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 20L across 57 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Utsikten against 1.28 for Ostersunds FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Utsikten have managed 14W 7D 7L from 28 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ostersunds FK's away record stands at 5W 9D 14L across 28 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Utsikten are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.25 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 23W 16D 18L in their last 57 games (1.49 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 19D 20L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Utsikten's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.75 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utsikten won 0-3 on 2 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utsikten have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Utsikten
2
Draws
2
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Ostersunds FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 4, Ostersunds FK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2025, when Ostersunds FK 2-1 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and Ostersunds FK?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 57%, Ostersunds FK 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Utsikten) and 39% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Utsikten's recent matches and 46% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Utsikten vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Utsikten's recent games and 39% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utsikten and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utsikten cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Ostersunds FK 3-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.79 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.95 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Utsikten beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.10 / defence 1.05 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 56% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 19%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 49%, Ostersunds FK 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.49 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.