Skövde AIK 0-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 37%, yet in-form GIF Sundsvall provide a compelling counter-argument — this Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 25 as Skövde AIK welcome GIF Sundsvall to Södermalms IP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Skövde AIK stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Skövde AIK's home record at Södermalms IP: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. GIF Sundsvall's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Skövde AIK's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Skövde AIK's 30% rate and GIF Sundsvall's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Skövde AIK, 2 for GIF Sundsvall and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Skövde AIK trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 46% versus GIF Sundsvall 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 50% | GIF Sundsvall 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.04 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.739 / defence 1.101 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.680 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.176. Skövde AIK's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Skövde AIK games / 54 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 37% | Draw 34% | GIF Sundsvall 29%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | GIF Sundsvall 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Skövde AIK as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GIF Sundsvall (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Skövde AIK 30% | GIF Sundsvall 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 37% | Draw 34% | GIF Sundsvall 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Skövde AIK 1.04 / GIF Sundsvall 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.739 / def 1.101 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.680 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
0.88
GIF Sundsvall xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Skövde AIK 0 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 37% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (3 meetings): Skövde AIK 1W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 2W.
What form are Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Skövde AIK's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Skövde AIK's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
37%
2.69
34%
2.94
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
1.92
0.88
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 0.88 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Skövde AIK's recent record stands at 15W 13D 26L from 54 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 25L across 54 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Skövde AIK on 1.07 PPG, GIF Sundsvall on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Skövde AIK have managed 12W 5D 10L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Skövde AIK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 5W 6D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Skövde AIK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.04 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 15W 14D 25L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.52 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: GIF Sundsvall have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Skövde AIK's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Skövde AIK
0
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall?
From 4 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 1, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2024, when Skövde AIK 0-2 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Skövde AIK see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Skövde AIK 33% BTTS, GIF Sundsvall 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Skövde AIK) and 41% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Skövde AIK have failed to score in 33% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 33% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 41% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Skövde AIK 0-2 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.04 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.88 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Skövde AIK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.74 / defence 1.10 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.68 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 37% | Draw 34% | GIF Sundsvall 29%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 50%, GIF Sundsvall 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.07 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.