Osters IF 4-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees GIF Sundsvall travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 November 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Osters IF have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osters IF at Visma Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Osters IF) versus 1.50 (GIF Sundsvall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Osters IF, 1 for GIF Sundsvall and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2023, ended 3–2 with Osters IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Osters IF in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osters IF 66% and GIF Sundsvall 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 61% | GIF Sundsvall 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.82 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.053 / defence 0.838 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.927 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.224. Data: 59 Osters IF games / 29 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 58% | Draw 23% | GIF Sundsvall 19%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | GIF Sundsvall 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 50% | GIF Sundsvall 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 58% | Draw 23% | GIF Sundsvall 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Osters IF 1.82 / GIF Sundsvall 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.053 / def 0.838 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.927 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.95
GIF Sundsvall xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Osters IF 4 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 58% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (3 meetings): Osters IF 1W | Draws 1 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Osters IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osters IF's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.38
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.77
0.95
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
3%
31.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.95 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osters IF's recent record stands at 27W 15D 17L from 59 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 36L across 59 games — 0.83 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osters IF by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIF Sundsvall heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osters IF have managed 15W 6D 8L from 29 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 4W 5D 20L across 29 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.10 scored and 2.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 27W 15D 17L in their last 59 games (1.63 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 13W 10D 36L in their last 59 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Osters IF's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.76 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 15 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osters IF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Osters IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Osters IF
1
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 7 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 5, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 15 June 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 0-4 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 59%, GIF Sundsvall 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Osters IF) and 55% (GIF Sundsvall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Osters IF's recent matches and 48% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Osters IF's matches and 55% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osters IF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat GIF Sundsvall 4-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.82 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.95 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Osters IF beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.05 / defence 0.84 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 58% | Draw 23% | GIF Sundsvall 19%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 61%, GIF Sundsvall 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.