Osters IF 1-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Degerfors IF make the trip to Visma Arena to face Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Osters IF have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Visma Arena, Osters IF have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena.
Degerfors IF's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 7D 0L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Degerfors IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Degerfors IF's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Osters IF against 1.60 for Degerfors IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Osters IF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osters IF 67% and Degerfors IF 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 70% | Degerfors IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.91 xG and Degerfors IF 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.100 / defence 0.924 | Degerfors IF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.179. Data: 30 Osters IF games / 0 Degerfors IF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Osters IF 60% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 18%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Degerfors IF 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 40% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 60% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Osters IF 1.91 / Degerfors IF 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.100 / def 0.924 | Degerfors IF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Degerfors IF xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Osters IF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Degerfors IF?
Osters IF 1 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Osters IF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Osters IF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 60% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Osters IF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osters IF and Degerfors IF in?
Osters IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 1.10x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.85x) against Osters IF's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.57
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.83
0.93
Degerfors IF xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
3%
37.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.93 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 16W 6D 8L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Degerfors IF's form line: 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Osters IF are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Degerfors IF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (9W 2D 4L).
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 4D 9L from 15 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osters IF are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.07 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Degerfors IF in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 16W 6D 8L in their last 30 games (1.80 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Osters IF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.93 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osters IF have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Osters IF
1
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Degerfors IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 2, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Osters IF 1-2 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Degerfors IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 47%, Degerfors IF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Osters IF and 53% for Degerfors IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Osters IF's games and 67% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Osters IF's matches and 53% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Osters IF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osters IF and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF and Degerfors IF finished level at 1-1 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.91 xG and Degerfors IF 0.93 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Osters IF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.10 / defence 0.92 against Degerfors IF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 60% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 18%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 70%, Degerfors IF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.